Headset Heavyweights: 3 advanced metrics to preview Sark vs. Odom

Ahead of Saturday’s primetime matchup between two of the best offensive and defensive minds in college football I took a look at three statistics that should highlight the battle between the Texas Longhorn offense and the Arkansas Razorback defense.

The lynchpin to this discussion is the football statistic “Expected Points Added.” If you’re not familiar with EPA hopefully this brief breakdown helps.

Expected Points Added (EPA) is a stat that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play. 

One of the best examples of EPA is James Harrison’s 100 yard pick-six for the Steelers in the 2009 Super Bowl. The Arizona Cardinals started the play with an EPA of 6.97 since it was 1st and Goal at the 1 yard line. Harrison rumbles and tumbles 100 yards the other way, flipping the game on its head and adding 13.97 EPA for the Steelers. 

The nerd stuff is boring and tedious at times, but the math checks out with what we see using the “eye test.” According to EPA the two biggest plays of the game for the Texas offense against Louisiana were Jordan Whittington’s 41 yard catch and run on 3rd & 11 (4.52 EPA) and Hudson Card’s 4th down scramble to extend a drive late in the first quarter down 3-0 (3.66 EPA).

Scipio and Ian’s previews are the main course to get you prepared for Arkansas. Consider this a nice side to add to the preview plate.

EPA/Pass

EPA/Pass breaks down the expected points added per dropback or passing attempt. 

Texas was one of the most efficient and effective passing teams in the country in week one. The Longhorns generated 21.21 Expected Points Added on 29 dropbacks totaling 0.73 EPA/Pass, their highest total since the 2014 season. 

For comparison, here are the Texas offense’s EPA/Pass totals vs. Top 25 teams last season -0.04 vs. Oklahoma, 0.05 vs. Oklahoma State, 0.12 vs. Iowa State. 

Steve Sarkisian’s ability to create easy throws for Hudson Card against an Arkansas defense that will throw plenty of “junk defensive looks” their way will be paramount to maintaining the same level of passing success.

Explosive Plays

Arkansas defensive coordinator Barry Odom adapted the flyover defense at Arkansas last season, mixing various coverages from 4-2-5, 3-3-5, and 3-2-6 formations. 

Our own @Ian Boyd did a fantastic job over the offseason breaking down how Odom’s flyover defensive philosophy gave a historically good Alabama offense fits. 

“Odom started using the flyover defense and really gave Steve Sarkisian and Alabama some trouble. I know, I know, the Tide trounced them 52-3, but it wasn’t what it appeared to be. 

Arkansas had 188 yards of offense, turned the ball over four times, and gave up a punt return touchdown.

Mac Jones threw for 209 yards at 7.2 ypa, Najee Harris and Brian Robinson combined for 27 carries that yielded 100 yards at 3.7 ypc with five touchdowns.

Alabama blew them out because the Hog offense was woeful and gave them short fields and because the Tide successfully converted 10 of 14 third downs and finished drives with short-yardage touchdown runs. That’s exactly what you want in the flyover defense, to force teams to finish in the red zone and pick up third downs. That Arkansas was able to put Alabama in that position rather than giving up tons of plays over the top or getting road-graded in the run game is highly notable.”

In fact, Arkansas was the only defense last year to prevent the Alabama offense from generating a single explosive play. Explosive plays are recognized when a pass’s EPA is > 2.4 and a rush’s EPA is > 1.8. 

While Texas might not match their six explosive passing plays number from week one, don’t count out Steve Sarkisian’s ability to make adjustments and generate big plays after nearly a year of reflection.

Early down rushing

One of the few negative statistics from Texas’s opening week win over Louisiana was the Longhorn’s inability to get much going on early downs in the run game. The Texas offense only had five successful early down rushing attempts and finished the game averaging 0.07 EPA/rush. 

Some of the rushing inefficiency from week one can be chalked up to Lousiana stacking the box to stop Bijan Robinson and Texas using the run to set up the pass for great success. However this week Texas will need to set the tone early by punishing an Arkansas defense that will surely bait them into running into light boxes.

If Texas can punish the Razorbacks on the ground early and force Odom to move a safety to the box to support the run, it will likely be a positive indicator for a resounding Horns win.