Hoops Preview: Appalachian State

Hoops Preview: Appalachian State
Date: Tuesday, December 15
Time: 7:00 Central
Television: ESPN
Location: UT

Opponent Overview:

Texas basketball looks to consolidate their last thousandth of a second win versus North Carolina by welcoming Appalachian State (2-6) to the Drum on Tuesday evening. The Mountaineers, coached by Jim Fox, have lost three games in a row – and six of seven – as they limp into Austin. While technically a “trap game” this one likely remains such in name only.

The Mountaineers look to be led by 6’2” senior guard Frank Eaves (20.5 pts, 3.5 rbs, 2.1 asts per game). Eaves has been really the lone bright spot for ASU this season and was fantastic in their last game out (a close loss to Hofstra at Madison Square Garden). Eaves is dynamic with the ball off the bounce (kind of reminds me a of poor man’s Ben Gordon). Texas has done a nice job of shutting down opposing teams’ best perimeter shooters of late (I’d include holding Marcus Paige to only 20, even with a good shooting night, among those). How well Texas limits Eaves will likely be the story as to how long ASU is in this game.

Texas Keys: Offense

Mack and Barnett. Tevin and Jordan both played excellent games, offensively, against UTSA (who didn’t, I guess). But, against North Carolina, Shaka gave a glimpse of his future personnel decisions this season by playing Mack three minutes and Barnett none. At this point, their minutes moving forward will be determined as much by them forcing their way onto the court from an offensive standpoint as it would be by their ability to be quality defenders. In other words, the backcourt is a logjam and they’re going to have to prove they can be an offensive mismatch at the four to make up for any rebounding or defensive issues they would also bring. Expect both guys to be aggressive and look for their offense tonight, with a lot being on the line for both.

Free throws. Not surprisingly, this is a mental thing. Self doubt can be crippling. Form wise, there’s not a whole lot to be suggested. What Texas needs is to hit a high percentage and build some momentum/confidence. Appalachian State puts teams on the line an average of 25 times per game. It would be nice if Texas could be in the 19-21 range for makes. Statistics say they’ll be around 15. We’ll see what happens.

Texas Keys: Defense

Comfort in the system=rebounds. Texas’ +29 rebounding margin over the last three games could have theoretically had some fools’ gold qualities to it. The first two games came against Samford and UTSA (two of the weaker teams Texas will play this season). But the third one? Number three UNC? That suggests something different is happening. Two things resonate as true concerning the rebounding: 1) Texas is a game of foul trouble from Ridley/Lammert away from struggling on the glass; 2) Texas is getting much more comfortable in what Shaka wants them to do as a defense, and that’s leading to better work on the glass. Learning a new system is about repetition and the ability to know where you’re supposed to be at any given time. The way that affects rebounding is that when a player is focusing on where they should be standing or thinking about their assignment/responsibilities, they aren’t thinking about finding – and attacking – the ball for the rebound. Well, Texas now has almost 2000 combined minutes of game time in their Shaka Smart defense. And the rebounding is coming around because the feeling out period is almost finished. More of that tonight would suggest those three games were more of a trend than an aberration.

The Endgame

There is some truth to the fact that coaches make their money on the games right after the big ones. A loss to Appalachian State would be about as deflating as one could be given the circumstances.

I don’t expect that to happen.

To me, the more interesting question than win or loss is how Shaka rounds out his rotation. In the loss against Michigan, Holland played 31 minutes (including all but one of the last eight minutes of a close game). In the win against North Carolina, Holland played eight minutes total (including none in the last 17 minutes of a close game).

Talk about night and day between Smart and Barnes. Does that persist against a clearly overmatched opponent, or is it the kind of game where Smart throws Holland a bone for his hard work? Interesting.

Texas wins easily.

Prediction: Texas 88 – Appalachian State 61

Projected Starting Lineup

Taylor
Holland
Felix
Lammert
Ridley