Inside the Gameplan: Part 2, Into the Crucible

The Gameplan: Part 1, Texas’ Non-Conference Slate

The early part of the conference slate is always where things get real for Texas and the season’s narrative is more or less set. The first two years of the Charlie Strong era featured Kansas, Baylor, and Oklahoma in the first three conference games of 2014 and then Oklahoma State, TCU, and Oklahoma again as the first three of 2015.

Charlie is 2-4 in those games with a victory over Kansas and the 2015 Red River Shootout triumph that saved his job. In each of those seasons, Charlie had to match up against multiple conference contenders with teams that were young, barely put together, and lacking confidence after non-conference set backs. In 2016, he might at least be coaching a team above .500, albeit still remarkably young, against another tough slate of Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, and Iowa State.

The Oklahoma game is always a primary gauge for what kind of team is in Austin and the ceiling for the season is always set by what happens in that game. Even the way Texas plays in a loss is important, as Bob Stoops can tell you after facing frustrating questions about why his teams looked over-powered in each of the last three Red River Shootouts despite managing a victory in one.

Here’s a glimpse at these three opponents and the factors that will dictate how this stretch goes, including the all-important street fight in the Cotton Bowl.

The Cowboys of Oklahoma State

With better officiating, quicker deployment of the young cornerbacks, better 4th quarter play-calling, one less special teams disaster, or a more productive offensive offseason, Texas would have defeated and perhaps even routed the Cowboys in Austin last year.

This year’s Okie lite squad will be a tad different than the one that surged to an improbable 10-0 start before getting lit up at the end of the year when they played stronger opponents. That said, the main identity of the team will remain the drop-back passing game orchestrated by quarterback Mason Rudolph.

The Cowboys bring back virtually the entire offense including tight end Blake Jarwin, leading receivers Marcell Ateman and James Washington, six different linemen that have logged significant snaps, and a couple of backs that will now be in the fight of their lives to hold off Stanford transfer Barry Sanders Jr. from stealing that role.

Word out of Stillwater is that the ‘Pokes will spend more time under center this year and try to hammer down outside zone as a running play so they finally have something they can hang their hats on for standard downs besides the passing game. Any line of experienced players, hard-nosed players that focuses hard enough on it can become effective in outside zone so there’s definitely a chance that OSU will have a half-decent rushing attack in 2016.

If that happens, their passing game will become even more potent, but perhaps not against Texas. The Longhorns were able to seriously diminish the efficiency of Rudolph and the passing attack, which had been carving Texas’ secondary apart with curl-flat combinations, by finally unleashing Davante Davis and Holton Hill. Each of them had the ability to hang with the receivers’ breaks back to the QB and stick their long limbs into the passing windows against the dreaded curl route. Normally that play is a nightmare for an isolated cornerback in cover 3 but without that tool in the box, the Cowboy passing attack was really muted in the second half.

While the ‘Pokes passing game should be better in 2016, a similar leap from the Texas cornerbacks and overall defense should make this game a serious challenge for the OSU offense. Their strength in the passing game is facing a strong pass defense while they lack the resources to get after Texas’ soft spots against the run.

Meanwhile the Cowboys defense is loaded with veterans up the middle of the defense with returning, proven players at both defensive tackle spots, middle linebacker, and both safety positions. Free safety Jordan Sterns is one of the better run-support players in the conference and nose tackle Vincent Taylor is a real handful in the middle of the line.

Even worse, D-coordinator Glenn Spencer is one of the league’s most clever tacticians and will find it easier with this veteran group to disguise their looks and prevent Shane Buechele from getting a clean pre-snap look.

On the bright side, the Cowboys are losing their no. 1 cornerback Kevin Peterson and lack an obvious candidate to serve as a lockdown option. They’re also losing their athletic bookends Jimmy Bean and Emmanuel Ogbah on the D-line. Against much of the Big 12 I expect them to mix in some nasty dime packages with 220-pound safety Derrick Moncrief (transfer from Auburn) replacing a linebacker or D-linemen, but against Texas’ veer and shoot, they won’t be able to downsize their lineup or they’ll just get run over.

If John Burt is ready to be a dominant player in the Big 12, this would be the game for him to prove it with a 100-yard day. Of all the opponents on the schedule the Cowboys are one of the better-equipped defenses to try and handle Texas’ power run game thanks to their size and experience up front. They are less equipped to handle the Longhorns if Buechele, Burt, and co. are ready to punish an aggressive run defense with a vertical passing attack.

The Red River Shootout

Oklahoma is the overwhelming favorite to win the Big 12 in 2016 and are still considered the class of the league thanks to an always physical and athletic defense now paired once more with an elite offense. The additions of Baker Mayfield and Lincoln Riley kick-started that offense back into hyper-drive last year and they’re likely to be even better in 2016. The biggest difference will be an O-line that is bringing back talented players at both tackle spots that were pushed into action as freshmen a year ago while sliding an experienced guard over to center. With those three (Orlando Brown, Jonathan Alvarez, Dru Samia) anchoring the unit it should be a really strong unit.

Their Cerberus backfield of Baker Mayfield, Samaje Perine, and Joe Mixon might be the nastiest we’ve ever seen in the Big 12 and their skill sets perfectly complement each other as Mayfield can run the option, Perine is a thundering runner and willing blocker, and Mixon is very comfortable moving back and forth between the box and the perimeter. The Sooners are also expecting to add another hybrid to the mix in flex TE Mark Andrews, a 6-foot-5 match-up problem in the slot who’s blocking makes their perimeter running game even more fearsome.

Here’s a glimpse of the kind of terrifying concept they can utilize with these guys on the field (Mixon is the H, Perinethe R, and Andrews the Y):

If you overplay the motion by Mixon then they’ll run Perine down your throats with a smile on their faces. If you overplay Perine, as most would prefer to do, then you are at risk against both the screen and the Mayfield keeper. Confounding things is the fact that the key block in space on the perimeter is being executed by the 6-foot-5 Andrews on guys like P.J. Locke.

With all of these weapons and athletes back and a cunning signal-caller like Baker at the helm, beating OU in 2016 is probably going to require scoring lots of points.

Their defense looks like it should be impervious to getting lit up by the standard Big 12 offense thanks to a secondary that boasts some great athletes in nickel Will Johnson, corner Jordan Thomas, and strong safety Steven Parker. They’ll also be plugging in veterans at the other corner spot and at free safety with Dakota Austin and Ahmad Thomas returning. Their returning linebacker Jordan Evans is another athlete who’s great in coverage and can handle the space of playing in the Big 12.

Up front they don’t look nearly as disruptive as they did a year ago with Charles Tapper, Devante Bond, and Eric Striker gone but at the very least their run defense might still be solid with Charles Walker, Matt Romar, Matt Dimon, and Jordan Wade all returning along the D-line.

The Sooners are basically a healthy Mayfield and the discovery of a 10-sack caliber OLB away from being the runaway favorites to dominate the Big 12 that everyone is expecting them to be.

Their likely weak spots are the pass-rush, at guard where they have fresh faces stepping in, and potentially in the run game if a team can exploit their occasionally unsound option defenses or lack of big pluggers at linebacker. Texas’ best bet on offense is in exploiting the run defense and picking up easy yardage gifted by the Sooners’ lack of veteran run-fitters at linebacker and unaggressive D-line techniques. On defense Texas needs to find ways to fire tackles or linebackers through the interior gaps defended by the green Sooner guards. If Malik Jefferson can win some battles against LT Orlando Brown in the pass-rush and Poona Ford can eat well again shooting gaps inside then perhaps Texas can cause enough disruption to kill drives.

Overall the match-ups in this game don’t favor the Longhorns at all. At least under Strong it appears that Texas is at a physical/emotional advantage in this game after years of lackluster showings.

The Cyclones of Iowa State

My money is on Matt Campbell’s “make Iowa State the Midwestern team of the Big 12” play working out quite well over the next few years. The Cyclones might even replacing Kansas State as the strongest remaining member of the Big 12 at some point in the next few years.

In the meantime, they aren’t quite there yet but they’re probably more dangerous than people think. Let’s start with their skill talent, which includes two of the better weapons in the Big 12 in RB Mike Warren and WR Allen Lazard. The former is a bruising back that came alive in Mangino’s zone run game last year to the tune of 1339 yards while the latter is a 6-foot-5, 220-pound match-up nightmare that had 808 receiving yards.

Joel Lanning showed some promise at quarterback last year, mainly for what he could do with his feet, which caught Texas completely unprepared last year. He was not good throwing from the pocket in 2015 but you should probably expect a nice bit of improvement after an offseason of 1st team reps with the new coaching staff.

The obvious weak spot on offense is the line, which only returns one starter (tackle Jake Campos) but will be looking to build around gap schemes and pulling young center Julian Good-Jones, a 6-foot-4, 280-pound athlete that should thrive in the new schemes. Between Campbell’s unique running schemes, the dual backfield threats of Warren and Lanning, and the need for many teams to double Lazard, the Cyclones have a lot going for them on offense this year.

The defense should be at least mediocre thanks to the return of safety Kamari Cotton-Moya, a big intimidator in the middle, and disruptive defensive tackle Demond Tucker. The Cyclone secondary lacks a lockdown corner, which would point to playing a lot of cover 2, but there’s a lot of question about whether the linebacker tandem of Kane Seeley and Willie Harvey can hold down the middle without Cotton-Moya regularly dropping down to join them.

If Texas can’t shred the green Cyclone OL, they may struggle to keep Iowa State off the board but on the other end this defense isn’t going to hold up to the tremendous stresses that the Longhorns will be executing in front of a home crowd.

Like in the non-conference slate, Texas should be able to manage a couple of victories from this section of the schedule and be within a couple of games of bowl eligibility heading down the stretch.

In recent years we’ve been forced to throw the data out the window in projecting the Red River Shootout but unless a Texas defensive front that’s missing impact players at inside linebacker, free safety, and defensive tackle can hold down the OU run game, I wouldn’t expect the Longhorns to out-physical the Sooners again in Dallas. Stoops will be out for blood this time.

Nevertheless, payback against the Cowboys and Cyclones combined with another “we aren’t afraid of you” performance against Oklahoma would tell the story of a program very close to getting back on top of this league.