Sam Ehlinger is ready to be an NFL quarterback
Sam Ehlinger has been put into tough situations before.
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Man of the house at age 14 after his father’s tragic passing.
Starting quarterback for the newly installed Todd Dodge era at Westlake as a true sophomore with zero returning starters around him.
Starting quarterback for the newly installed Tom Herman era at Texas as a true freshman after teammate Shane Buechele hurt his shoulder in Week 1.
Now suddenly starting quarterback for what could be the last year of the Frank Reich era with the Indianapolis Colts as only a second year pro.
So the circumstances are probably pretty familiar.
The Colts have always liked what they’ve seen from Ehlinger since he arrived as a 6th round pick for the 2021 season, seeing him as a potential long-term asset if he could develop behind strong veterans like Matt Ryan while improving his throwing mechanics and learning the pro game. However after a 3-3-1 start while scoring 16.1 points per game and a long talk between head coach Reich and team owner Jim Irsay, the time is now for Ehlinger to get his chance at becoming the leader of the Colts.
Is he up for shouldering that kind of responsibility once more at the highest level? I wouldn’t bet against him, here’s why.
Ehlinger and professional quarterbacking
There’s a lot that’s different at the NFL level from the college level.
The hash marks are narrower, which means the quarterback is almost always working from the middle of the field with greater access to throws on either side. However, the safeties are also working from the middle of the field with greater access to throws on either side. It’s easier to use the whole field, but everything is more tightly contested.
All of the defenders are bigger, smarter, and more skilled than in college. You don’t get many freebies where receivers are running wide open because of a coverage bust and you don’t get many chances to throw to receivers sitting in the vacant spots of zone. Quarterbacks have to make progressions and beat man coverage with accurate throws and precise timing.
Understanding defenses, blitzes, and protections is paramount. Even for running-heavy teams like the Colts aspire to be, the pro-style, dropback passing game is a much bigger component than in college where simpler play-action, RPOs, and quick passes can make up a bigger chunk of the offense. Mastering a pro-style passing game means, at the very least, understanding the protections in front of you and how they interact with the route patterns by your receivers and the defense’s coverages.
Finally, the improv game is a different animal. Scrambling quarterbacks often have some opportunities in the NFL that aren’t there as often in college because there’s so much more man coverage with defenders’ backs turned. Teams love drafting quarterbacks with live legs and strong arms who can take advantage. But ultimately the cerebral part of the game tends to dictate who has real staying power in the league. See Brady, Tom.
As it happens, Ehlinger has always had a lot of the less obvious tools which make for successful NFL quarterback. By his second year at Texas he was already carrying a lot of responsibility for not only understanding but directing the protections in front of him by the Longhorn offensive line. Texas’ tempo attack from 2018-20 routinely counted on him to audible the Longhorns out of bad situations or into good ones where they could seize opportunities he noticed live on the field.
His ability to hurt man coverage by scrambling for time or yardage has always been a key factor in his game and between that and his mastery of the Texas dropback passing game, he often kept the Longhorns in games they were otherwise not competitive in.
The missing ingredient was always his ability to “make all the throws.” Ehlinger was never known for being a brilliant arm talent like say, Quinn Ewers, and the heavy load he carried for Texas as their short-yardage runner often diminished what passing ability he did have. His NFL career will likely hinge on how well he balances his instinct to run over problems as he did at Westlake or Texas with the more cerebral and skilled components of his game.
The 2022 Colts offense with Ehlinger
The Colts were designed to be a run-first offense. Everyone in their released starting lineup for next Sunday is 25 or younger except the offensive line, which only features players 26 or older and also has two former first round picks (center Ryan Kelly, left guard Quenton Nelson), and a former second round pick (right tackle Braden Smith).
Their goal with this team was to be able to pound the rock, behind the Kelly/Nelson tandem in particular, with former back-to-back (nearly three in a row) 2,000 yard Wisconsin rusher Jonathan Taylor. Then Matt Ryan would reliably guide the offense from there while buying time for Ehlinger to develop.
Instead Taylor has been dinged up with an ankle injury (will play Sunday) and the team has rushed for 100 yards only twice in seven games. Matt Ryan has also been sacked 24 times, nearly 3.5 per game, and has thrown nine touchdowns and nine picks while trying to work behind this line.
It’s a tough scene.
So how will this go for Ehlinger? Well he does have a few attributes which might help the Colts and potentially give them a reason to make him their franchise leader moving forward.
One obvious boost he can offer is in the spread-option game.
Matt Ryan can execute RPOs, he actually did so for Steve Sarkisian with the Atlanta Falcons, but he’s never going to give you anything in the zone-option game. Ehlinger is a solid, not great, zone-option quarterback. He can’t be Lamar Jackson, there are defensive ends who can slow-play him and prevent him from winning the edge, but he can help the Colts mix those concepts in to keep ends guessing and give the run game a boost. On RPOs he’s very experienced due to his time at Texas.
He can also help in the power run game, although that’s not something they’re going to want to mix in too heavily.
Where Ehlinger has greater promise and was underrated in college is his ability to keep an offense on schedule in the dropback passing game. Check these plays out from his preseason:
In the first example Ehlinger sees the safety dropping late, knows he’s getting Cover 4, and consequently knows the outside linebacker has to wall the seam and can’t get wide in time to prevent a quick window for the slant. He drops back and immediately throws the ball into the window and they pick up 3rd and 12. In the second example he hits the rail on mesh very quickly and hits the back for an easy first down.
This is the difference between high level NFL quarterbacking and domination of the high school or college levels. The big-armed, athletically gifted quarterbacks at the lower levels struggle to get the ball out quickly when they get to the NFL because they often reached that level in the first place by holding onto the ball and physically dominating opponents. Not many can still do so in the NFL, fewer can do it for long, and even those who can tend to also become effective at getting the ball out quickly.
Ehlinger has always had this right. He understands the value to an offense from a quarterback who gets the ball out quickly and on time so better athletes have a chance to make plays. In his preseason appearances this year he went 24-29 for 289 yards at 9.9 ypa with four touchdowns, zero picks, and five sacks. The high completion percentage (82.8%) paired with the high sack rate reveal his knack for throwing on time and keeping the chains moving despite iffy pass protection.
However, he also added six carries for 71 yards at 11.8 ypc with a touchdown and made the following plays outside of the design of the offense.
Ehlinger already understands the right formula for success in the NFL. He needs to be a really smart, rhythm passer who keeps his offense on schedule, protects the ball, and then picks his spots to make plays outside of the offense to help put them over the top. Basically like he was at Texas but with a higher emphasis on the passing and less on quarterback lead on 3rd and 2.
All of his career up till now has prepared him well to shoulder responsibility thrust suddenly upon him in a tough situation. I’m looking forward to seeing him respond once again.
