What the Texas Longhorns are facing in the next seven games
Sitting at 18-6 overall and 7-4 in Big 12 play, the No. 20 Texas Longhorns have seven conference games remaining before the postseason begins. Chris Beard’s team began the back half of Big 12 play with a win over then-No. 20 Iowa State and a home upset of No. 8 Kansas.
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The task for Texas remains difficult as the Longhorns seek to solidify their place in the NCAA Tournament. If they make the field of 68 this year, it would be the Longhorns’ first back-to-back NCAA Tournament appearance since the 2014-15 and 2015-16 seasons.
Every Big 12 team is currently in the top 75 of the NCAA’s NET rankings, an important metric the selection committee uses to determine not just the tournament field, but seeding as well. Texas’ next opponent, Baylor, is the highest-ranked Big 12 team in NET as of Wednesday afternoon, checking in at No. 7. The Longhorns head to Waco to face the defending national champions in the Ferrell Center on Saturday at 11 a.m.
The six other games will be challenging, too. Here are the matchups ahead of the Longhorns.
@ Baylor
Sat. Feb. 12 – 11 a.m. – ESPN
Waco, Texas
Record: 20-4 (8-3 Big 12)
Current AP ranking: No.10
Current KenPom ranking: No. 6
Current NET ranking: No. 7
@ Oklahoma
Tues. Feb. 15 – 6 p.m. – ESPN2
Norman, Okla.
Record: 14-10 (4-7 Big 12)
Current AP ranking: NR
Current KenPom ranking: No. 30
Current NET ranking: No. 39
Last meeting: Jan. 11 – Texas 66-52
Texas Tech
Sat. Feb. 19 – 11:30 a.m. – ABC
Austin, Texas
Record: 18-6 (7-4 Big 12)
Current AP ranking: No. 9
Current KenPom ranking: No. 13
Current NET ranking: No. 13
Last meeting: Feb. 1 – Texas Tech 77-64
TCU
Wed. Feb. 23 – 6 p.m. – ESPN2 or ESPNU
Austin, Texas
Record: 16-5 (5-4 Big 12)
Current AP ranking: NR
Current KenPom ranking: No. 56
Current NET ranking: No. 54
Last meeting: Jan. 25 – Texas 73-50
@ West Virginia
Sat. Feb. 26 – TBA – ESPN or ESPN2
Morgantown, W.Va.
Record: 14-9 (3-7 Big 12)
Current AP ranking: NR
Current KenPom ranking: No. 54
Current NET ranking: No. 59
Last meeting: Jan. 1 – Texas 74-59
Baylor
Mon. Feb. 28 – 8 p.m. – ESPN
Austin, Texas
Record: 20-4 (8-3)
Current AP ranking: No. 10
Current KenPom ranking: No. 6
Current NET ranking: No. 7
@ Kansas
Sat. March 5 – 3 p.m. – ESPN
Lawrence, Kan.
Record: 19-4 (8-2 Big 12)
Current AP ranking: No. 8
Current KenPom ranking: No. 7
Current NET ranking: No. 8
Last meeting: Feb. 7 – Texas 70-76
Quadrant 1 opportunities are ahead
Every matchup save for the TCU contest is likely to be a Quadrant 1 game, meaning a home game versus a team in the top 30 in NET or a road game against a team in the top 75. Big 12 Tournament games against teams in the top 50 in NET also count as Quadrant 1 games.
Texas is currently 4-5 in Quadrant 1 games. They are 5-1 in Quadrant 2 games, and undefeated in nine Quadrant 4 games. They have not faced a Quadrant 3 opponent. More details on the quadrant system can be found here.
What do the bracket prognosticators say?
Over on Bracket Matrix, the Longhorns are in the NCAA Tournament according to all 120 models used by the website. Texas’ average seed is 5.37, just good enough to be slotted as the final five seed. Rick Barnes’ Tennessee Volunteers and Shaka Smart’s Marquette Golden Eagles are also on the five seed line.
Most projections have Texas as a five or a six seed. Some have the Longhorns as a four, their best showing. 12 models have Beard’s team as a seven seed.
With seven games left, there is still plenty of time for most if not all of the previously mentioned metrics to change. Though these numbers indicate a lot, the number that truly matters once the regular season is over is the one in the W column.
