Where ESPN's SP+ ranks Texas (and its non-conference opponents) in preseason projections

Bill Connelly’s SP+ rankings tend to create a stir, especially when the ESPN college football writer updates them in between spring practice and summer “talking season.” Even if Connelly’s measure of efficiency has its blind spots, like it did with the efficient-but-rarely-explosive 2018 Longhorn team, it nonetheless offers an honest attempt at this late-May juncture of ranking how Texas and 130 other teams might fare in some of the sport’s crucial areas.

[Get a FREE 7-day trial of Inside Texas Plus!]

SP+ values returning production accounting for transfers and attrition, recent recruiting rankings, and recent history.

With one more update for SP+ still to come ahead of the 2022 season, here’s a look at where Connelly’s system currently has Texas.

2021 preseason

SP+ ranking: No. 20
Defensive SP+: No. 38
Offensive SP+: No. 17

2021 postseason

SP+ ranking: No. 48
Defensive SP+: No. 86
Offensive SP+: No. 29

2022 preseason

SP+ ranking: No. 31
Defensive SP+: No. 47
Offensive SP+: No. 19

Just for fun, Texas was No. 14 in SP+ in the 2020 preseason, and No. 19 ahead of the 2019 season.

Some context for the 2021 rankings before getting to 2022. The system is coach-blind. It didn’t differentiate between Mike Yurcich’s system and Steve Sarkisian’s offense in the same way it didn’t differentiate between Chris Ash and Pete Kwiatkowski at defensive coordinator. Those projections also didn’t factor 1) Sarkisian using Bijan Robinson more often than the previous staff 2) the new offense’s propensity for downfield shots or 3) Xavier Worthy’s ability, save for his recruiting ranking (Worthy was No. 56 overall in the On3 Consensus and No. 62 in ESPN’s rankings).

It did factor in lost production from Sam Ehlinger, Keaontay Ingram, Juwan Mitchell, Joseph Ossai, Caden Sterns, Chris Brown, Ta’Quon Graham, Sam Cosmi, and Brennan Eagles. Six of those players were NFL draft picks.

Thanks to Sarkisian’s offense, Worthy’s emergence, and Robinson solidifying his status as one of the nation’s best players, Texas finished not terribly far from SP+’s preseason offensive projection despite the lost production. Ahead of 2022, Texas’ production from Robinson, Worthy, Roschon Johnson, and Jordan Whittington all return. Plus, numbers at previous schools from Isaiah Neyor and Jahleel Billingsley factor into the equation.

While Casey Thompson’s yardage wasn’t put into the projection, that’s a small price to pay for having a talent like Quinn Ewers in Austin to compete with Hudson Card. Add in a top-10 class with stars on the offensive side, and the top-20 status makes sense.

Texas’ defense, on the other hand, tremendously underperformed the projection assigned to it in 2021. After a steady 2020 season with NFL players in the secondary and the trenches, the players asked to step into new roles did not perform at a similar level in a defense under new coordination.

Most of the 2021 defense returns for 2022, save for Josh Thompson, B.J. Foster, and Ray Thornton. The addition of Ryan Watts adds some interception numbers to the equation as well. That total without Watts’ numbers wasn’t very large in the first place.

Texas still checks in at No. 47 in spite of last year’s performance, the collapse of the 2019 class, and middling returning production from the players on the roster for 2022. DeMarvion Overshown, Jaylan Ford, D’Shawn Jamison, Anthony Cook, Ovie Oghoufo, Moro Ojomo, Alfred Collins, and several others return for this season. While that helps the returning production metric, it remains to be seen how members of that group will fare on the field in Kwiatkowski’s second year.

SP+ projects Texas to be one of the top offenses in the country and field a defense that isn’t great but also isn’t sub-par like the 2021 unit. As Ian Boyd pointed out in a piece about the Big 12’s standing in the rankings, Texas’ SP+ numbers on offense rank third in the Big 12, while the defensive SP+ ranks fourth in the conference behind a clear-cut top group of Oklahoma, Baylor, and Oklahoma State.

What does it think about Texas’ non-conference opponents?

UL-Monroe 2022 preseason SP+ numbers

SP+ ranking: No. 128
Defensive SP+: No. 127
Offensive SP+: No. 128

Though Sarkisian recently intimated UL-Monroe is akin to the Louisiana squad Texas opened the season with last year, that’s extremely unlikely to be the case.

Alabama 2022 preseason SP+ numbers

SP+ ranking: No. 2
Defensive SP+: No. 3
Offensive SP+: No. 2

Alabama is going to be elite on both sides of the ball.

UTSA 2022 preseason SP+ numbers

SP+ ranking: No. 67
Defensive SP+: No. 91
Offensive SP+: No. 37

After an impressive 2021 season, the Roadrunners will be stout in the G5 ranks once again. However, it’s unlikely they’ll be the same caliber of team that won 12 games and the Conference USA title.

There’s still a remaining update for Connelly’s numbers, and they are projections as opposed to predictions. They nonetheless offer a look at where Texas ranks in a few important metrics ahead of Sarkisian’s second season.