Who won Week 11 in the Big 12?
Oh how the mighty(ish) have fallen. Oklahoma and particularly Texas might feel somewhat relieved at this point that 2021 probably won’t be their last season in the Big 12. Perhaps neither are in position go out on a high note.
The Longhorns had the worst week. Their first-year head coach suffered an even worse indignity than the one which cemented the ouster of Mack Brown’s first replacement Charlie Strong. He lost to Kansas. At home. What’s more, he lost because Kansas was aggressive down the stretch with a fourth-down attempt on their own side of the field (unsuccessful) and a two-point attempt in overtime time (successful). All gas, no brakes from the Jayhawks.
Oklahoma had a pretty bad week as well though. Dave Aranda dragging the Sooners out of the locker room so they could observe cheering Baylor students be cleared off the field to make room for the Bears to kicking a field goal to expand the margin from a 10-point victory to a 13-point victory for Big 12 tiebreaker purposes…that’s about as ruthless as it gets.
Also Iowa State lost and are effectively eliminated now from Big 12 title contention. Mathematically they still have some pathways but this is pretty clearly going to come down to Oklahoma, OSU, and Baylor…with Kansas State holding a shot at a straight.
Contrar-Ian says the glass is half-empty
From what I’ve observed, there’s a bit of a debate on the Oklahoma interwebs regarding whether their glass is half-full or half-empty.
The Sooners only have a single loss for the year and are in as good a shape in the standings as anyone else in terms of making their way to the Big 12 title game. The only team who holds a tiebreaker (Baylor obviously), has two league losses and could conceivably add more given their remaining schedule (at K-State this Saturday looms). If the Sooners win out, they’re in. If they lose another game but Baylor loses to K-State, they’re in. They have a lot of pathways and control their own destiny.
But I think the glass is half-empty.
I expected Caleb Williams’ ability to run like a demon and stretch the field with his arm strength would make it all too easy for Lincoln Riley to scheme up space problems for the Bears comparable to the issues TCU presented with Chandler Morris. That’s not at all what happened though.
Lame opening script for the Sooners, especially on first down, with bafflingly poor execution. Running a play you used regularly in your Week 2 battle with the Cornhuskers at the end of the year on the road? That’s how you open up out off a bye week?
The backside is ostensibly being attacked by a glance or adjustable route from the receiver…but should not be the backside option. You had to plan on Caleb Williams running early and often, give him a keeper read. As it happens, the receiver is feigning a route before blocking. There is no option. Yikes.
Second down, what are they even running here? Line is in protection, half the receivers are blocking for God knows what…this team doesn’t look prepared.
Things got worse later in the game. Here are the second and third plays they ran on the first possession after the half.
Meltdown from the freshman quarterback. Eventually Lincoln Riley threw Spencer Rattler in there and he flailed about as well.
Oklahoma got THUMPED in the trenches in this game and Riley did not have a good gameplay for attacking the Bears in space. Not even a little bit. Whatever it was that came up for him during the last week, it’s hard to look at this film and believe him when he says it wasn’t a distraction.
It’s not getting easier either. Iowa State is next and while the Cyclones may be reeling from getting effectively knocked out of the Big 12 title race because they came out flat against Texas Tech, do we think they’ll be flat against Oklahoma? Then Bedlam, played for potentially the last time in Stillwater against an OSU team which is really clicking right now.
Lose to Oklahoma State and you’re depending on Baylor dropping another game in order to make the title game. I haven’t refreshed my knowledge of the Big 12 tiebreakers but I’m pretty sure if you’re the team out of three who lost to the other two, you’re out. Lose to Iowa State and you’re at the mercy of the tiebreakers without a point differential because you barely beat Kansas, West Virginia, Texas, etc.
But most importantly, losing more games seems exceedingly likely. The Sooners simply aren’t as good this season. Their ability to execute a power run game from spread sets has vanished, despite having a gift from God power-spread quarterback at the helm. It’s remarkable.
Are you fully engaged here, Lincoln Riley? Did you draw up much for your freshman quarterback on the road? Were all your practices effective over the last two weeks? Have you settled upon your favorite type of gumbo?
Joining the Sooners in glass half-empty purgatory
It’s interesting how Iowa State also came out flat the week after Matt Campbell allowed news to circulate he might be interested in the TCU job.
Do I think he’s interested in the TCU job? No. If he really was, he wouldn’t answer questions about the job like he did (non-denial) and he wouldn’t have allowed TCU to spread around the news he was interested. The two parties were probably using each other to boost the profile of the job and the candidate.
The real story is that Matt Campbell seems very willing for various programs to think he is amenable to leaving Iowa State for a new job, even one outside of his traditional Midwest target area. Is Matt Campbell interested in the USC job? In LSU? In Florida if/when they knock Darth Mullen and his tie fighter out into space?
I already know of at least one Iowa State Twitter account who will be all up in my mentions for this but what can I say? Iowa State brass has to be worried about this. The biggest worry would be if he’s thinking, “you know, I would be amenable to a top job that isn’t Michigan, Ohio State, or Notre Dame.”
Everyone knows Iowa State stands to lose a significant chunk of their team after this season and it’ll be harder for Campbell to secure a big time job if they go 7-6 next year while retooling the roster after once again falling short in pursuit of a Big 12 Championship. If he intends to go elsewhere, he has to be thinking about doing so this offseason.
Meanwhile, what a drag to miss out on a Big 12 title this season. I’ve mostly pinned Iowa State’s tendency to let opponents hang around on the lack of an explosive, play-action game to score points in bunches earlier in games to create a margin of error. I’d still point to this issue but they’ve also been ripped up early on defense in games against Tech and West Virginia. What’s going on there?
Texas arguably had a few bright spots against Kansas, their young receivers Xavier Worthy and Marcus Washington had some nice days. Of course, their defense also gift-wrapped two early touchdown drives and a 7-for-7 (all touchdowns) performance for the Jayhawks in the red zone. The young quarterback I have assumed would eventually be ready to guide a more full-bore Steve Sarkisian offense, Hudson Card, looked like the moment was too big for him. Also, they lost to Kansas.
The Longhorns should be good on offense next year, probably even great. They were pretty good on offense this year and return all the best components. There sure is a lot to figure out though for Steve Sarkisian and his staff, including who should be on Steve Sarkisian’s staff and how to play good defense.
Finally we have West Virginia, who lost again, this time 34-17 against the Wildcats. This team is a transfer quarterback away from having a lot of potential in 2022, but is there a transfer quarterback coming? Could Nicco Marchiol come in and play immediately?
Who won Week 11 in the Big 12?
Dave Aranda is one of the most measured, calm, affable, and genuinely caring of all the coaches in the Big 12. Many of these guys are brash, cocky, and have some salesmen in them. Those are traits which tend to help you network and recruit well enough to make it up the ladder in this profession.
Aranda ain’t like that at all, to the point it’s often held against him, “can this guy really recruit and compete at the higher levels?”
He drops Bernstein Bear references in press conferences and I’ve overheard him recommending children’s books like “The Giving Tree” (for what specific purpose, I’m not certain). He gave a touching tribute to Gary Patterson when TCU pushed the head Frog out midseason.
There’s at least one guy out there though who perhaps doesn’t think Aranda is the cuddly Bear he appears as for the rest of us.
Imagine dragging the six-time consecutive reigning Big 12 Champions back on the field to watch you kick a field goal so you can say you won by more than 10 points? Hahahahaha. Hugh Glass felt bad for Riley watching it happen.
I missed badly on this game in a couple of respects. I thought the Sooners would scheme some good run/pass conflicts in space, they did not. I expected Oklahoma’s defense to be able to handle the Baylor run game by packing the box, they tried and still got mauled. Finally, watching live I noticed the Bears were not getting enough pressure to prevent Oklahoma from sitting back and finding receivers with all the time.
Well, the last point was pretty inconsistent. When Matt Jones plays outside linebacker for the Bears, which he does at times while splitting duties with the decidedly less threatening (in the pass-rush) Garmon Randolph, they don’t have the same issues I’ve outlined. They can rush the passer with four when he’s out there and the threat of their blitzes involving Terrel Bernard and Jalen Pitre are multiplied.
Here was the main story though. Oklahoma went in to Waco and got MAULED in the trenches on both sides of the ball and then had their noses rubbed in it.
Huge win for Baylor and honestly…I’m not sure Oklahoma wants any part of a rematch. Riley could bring a much better gameplan on offense but they couldn’t block the Bear D-line and I don’t see that changing, nor would I expect them to have much more luck against the Baylor run game. Gerry Bohanon could play more poorly in the passing game…or he could play better, or Baylor could just run him even more.
Congrats to Baylor this week, who disproved many of my doubts with a resounding victory.
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