Who won Week 5 in the Big 12?
Perhaps above anything else, Week 5 featured Oklahoma and Texas staking their claims as the top programs in the league for 2021. Each team has been absolutely haunted by a different, purple-clad Big 12 program over the last two seasons and each was able to chase those ghosts away before Halloween.
Skylar Thompson came back for Kansas State and threw for 320 yards on the Sooners but Oklahoma overcame 37-31 and the game wasn’t exactly that close either. Granted it might have been more interesting had Lincoln Riley not been gifted an illegal review of a converted onside kick by the Wildcats. On the other hand, the officials botched the first review and the additional review ultimately got it right.
Texas finally beat TCU, thanks to a 35-carry, 216-yard effort by Bijan Robinson, punctuated by this 3rd-and-6 run to allow the Longhorns to run out the clock and sit on a five point lead.
Of course these two teams play next week in the Red River Shootout.
Contrar-Ian says the glass is half-empty
We have two teams who qualify here for similar reasons. I could add a third in Baylor but it’s obvious the glass is at least half-empty after Oklahoma State shut them down in Stillwater and might have totally blown them out if not for the dynamic I’m about to dive into.
Both the Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys have really good, feature backs and are running the ball very effectively. They’re also both playing pretty solid defense, I can pick out a few significant flaws for either the ‘Poke defense or the Texas unit but this league isn’t stacked with great offenses so either are certainly good enough to help their teams win games.
What both teams lack is the right sort of game manager at quarterback.
Casey Thompson for Texas could be a solid game manager in more of a pure spread system. He’s pretty solid in the quarterback run game and he can execute spread passing at a moderate level and bring value-add as a scrambler. Unfortunately, what this team could really use is a pocket passer who only throws the ball maybe 20x a game but can reliably hit shots down the field and avoid turnovers.
Steve Sarkisian knew what he wanted against TCU, here they have “mills” (post-dig) open against the Frog strong safety. How many times have I written about this very concept and TCU’s susceptibility to it when playing their base trips coverages?
Thompson was 12-22 though with 142 yards at 6.5 ypa. He did land a few throws, or Texas would have lost, including a game-winning RPO slant. However, the game was mostly defined by plays like this one:
With a play-action game, Texas scores 40+ points in this one and Bijan probably stops before he gets to 30 carries.
Incidentally, if TCU can’t stop an offense of this sort or prevent two of their bitterest in-state rivals from running the ball for north of 200+ yards, what is Gary Patterson offering to TCU at this point?
Now Oklahoma State, they have almost the opposite issue with Spencer Sanders. He can hit throws outside and down the field Casey Thompson cannot, but he can’t protect the football.
We’re at three years now and Sanders has never shown an ability to make careful decisions or protect the football. He has tremendous talent which makes offensive designs in the spread pretty easy at times, but then he does things like this.
In fact, quarterback play is an issue for most of the Big 12 this season. I’d say K-State (when Skylar is healthy), Oklahoma, and Iowa State are the only teams who should feel particularly confident at quarterback. Several more teams are thinking, “man, if we had just a solid veteran who could manage games and hit an open receiver down the field…”
Ironically, the league’s best quarterback was booed by his own fans the last time he played at home.
Contrar-Ian says the glass is half-full
Earlier this season, before conference play began, I took a stab at ranking the best running games in the league. My no. 1 and no. 2 teams faced in Manhattan on Saturday but by then my rankings already looked pretty bad. It’s given me some pause in ranking the league’s quarterbacks before I’ve had more inputs.
Anyways, my rankings look maybe a little better after Saturday. The no. 1 team K-State embarrassed me for the second straight week with Deuce Vaughn and Joe Ervin running it 22 times for 84 yards at 3.8 ypc but my no. 2 team Oklahoma rebounded from their shellacking against the West Virginia D-line.
Kennedy Brooks got 15 carries for the first time this season and produced 91 yards at 6.1 ypc and a score. Eric Gray also added 22 yards on four carries and fullback Jeremiah Hall got a couple of handoffs for nine yards and a score. All told, 21 carries for 122 yards at 5.8 ypc with two touchdowns.
Spencer Rattler also had eight carries (includes two sacks) but only threw the ball 25 times and completed 23 of those attempts. It wasn’t a dominant run game performance, but Oklahoma ran the ball effectively enough to win and while the quarterback was involved he didn’t rack up a ton of overall plays and hits which could diminish his play over the course of the season.
The Sooners didn’t cover the spread, they’re only 1-4 against the spread this season, but they controlled this game and didn’t overload their quarterback. Those are big positives, along with being 5-0, heading into the Red River Shootout.
Oklahoma also defended the run well against K-State, as evidenced by the numbers above for Ervin and Vaughn. What caught them against the Wildcats was the passing game, particularly throws to the running backs and slot receivers. Vaughn himself had 10 catches for 104 yards and a touchdown, mostly on checkdowns underneath in which the Sooners struggled to close and tackle him but were rarely undone.
There’s an obvious sense around Oklahoma that things are not going as well as expected. My offseason analysis identified pass protection and cornerback as potential trouble spots for the Sooners, particularly when Wanya Morris’ eligibility seemed to be in question and he couldn’t crack the starting lineup. Additionally, only having two scholarship running backs was an obvious issue.
What we’ve seen from Oklahoma is the lack of a power run game to lure in defensive backs and set up play-action of the sort they’ve always relied on in previous seasons. However, I’ve seen Riley make successful and massive changes to his offense before to maximize personnel. I was sold on him as a versatile offensive mind when he retooled the offense in 2019 after losing four NFL offensive linemen and replacing Kyler Murray with Jalen Hurts to be a power-option team. This year the adjustment is toward Rattler’s skill set as a passer (dude can throw on the move like few others) and the abilities of their O-line and tight ends. They’re evolving this season to become a midzone/play-action team.
The lateral zone blocking is a better fit for a unit with a smaller unit and more quickness than size or length (except Marquis Hayes who has it all). It also makes for easier blocks for the tight ends and lots of opportunities for them to slip out and run routes. Rattler is a maestro in this system with tons of movement-based play-action in which he can read half a field and show off his ability to throw on the move. Many of the throws Rattler makes at a high level which impresses scouts come on the move.
It’s good to know who you are heading into a rivalry game.
Who won Week 5 in the Big 12?
I’ve got a really cute answer here.
The Cincinnati Bearcats!
An even cuter answer would have been “the SEC” since Texas and Oklahoma are going to face off in the Red River Shootout on Saturday as the top two teams in the league they’re abandoning. Let’s talk about Cincinnati though.
Getting inflated in the rankings for beating Notre Dame is a time-honored Big 12 tradition. It was totally ridiculous for the Irish to be ranked ninth in the country, but the Bearcats can only play who’s in front of them. Anyways, while the Irish are in total rebuild mode and scrambling at O-line and quarterback, they still have a ton of talent and were playing at home.
Cincinnati has a good thing going this season and are currently ranked higher than any of the ir8te as well as Texas or Oklahoma, the former of whom just slipped in at 21st and latter of whom is amusingly just behind Cincinnati at no. 6.
Obviously the dark cloud looming over their entree to the Big 12 would be the departure of Luke Fickell, perhaps to take the USC job or another gig. However, even should that happen Cincinnati will be an attractive destination and they’ve tended to hire well. Remember, these are their last five coaches:
- Luke Fickell: Previously co-defensive coordinator at Ohio State and one-time interim HC.
- Tommy Tuberville: Poached from Texas Tech and had some initial success with back-to-back 9-4 years before fading and resigning to ultimately be a U.S. Senator. Truly a demotion.
- Butch Jones: Poached from Central Michigan, years two and three were good, then he was poached by Tennessee.
- Brian Kelly: Poached from Central Michigan, went undefeated one year before being poached in turn by Notre Dame.
- Mark Dantonio: Promoted from Ohio State defensive coordinator to Cincy head coach before having two decent years and then getting poached by Michigan State where he retired as an institution.
Cincinnati is like the University of Houston of the Midwest/Rust Belt. It’s the ideal stepping stone job for coaches in the area, you have a strong natural recruiting base and the program enjoys solid support in the city despite playing second fiddle to an NFL team. If Fickell is poached, they’ll be an attractive destination for another up and coming coach in the region who’d like to show off for the best Big 10 jobs. I’m not sure what that list looks like right now but it’s usually pretty extensive, the region produces a ton of football coaches.
Last year I often questioned whether Cincinnati could have potentially won the Big 12, this year a lot of people will be asking this question. Desmond Ridder is essentially exactly what Oklahoma State once hoped Spencer Sanders would be, they can run the ball downhill on inside zone, and their defense has real athletes. A really fun conclusion to this season would be some kind of NY6 or playoff matchup between Oklahoma and Cincinnati.
Could Cincinnati win the Big 12 in 2021? Discuss for free on the Flyover Football board.
