College Football Playoff: ESPN predicts 2025 12-team bracket, full bowl slate after Week 2

Week 2’s college football slate didn’t deliver much in the way of big-time matchups or eye-popping upsets — outside of South Florida‘s 18-16 win in The Swamp. But it nevertheless provided several impactful results that could have significant implications for the 2025 College Football Playoff.

In light of Week 2’s results — especially Top 25 losses from No. 12 Arizona State, No. 13 Florida, No. 15 Michigan, and No. 17 SMU — ESPN prognosticators Kyle Bonagura and Mark Schlabach overhauled their latest Playoff projections ahead of the Week 3 slate of games.

Keep in mind, this year’s 12-team CFP bracket format does away with automatic first-round byes for conference champions, with the opening byes going to the Playoff’s top four highest-ranked teams. That change aside, the first round will once again feature on-site home games for the highest-ranked teams numbered 5-8, just like last season. The first-round winners then advance to the quarterfinals, and subsequently to the semifinals, at previously-designated bowl sites.

Check out ESPN’s full 12-team College Football Playoff bracket projection below:

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 1

Bonagura: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Georgia
Schlabach: No. 12 South Florida at No. 5 Oregon

Both Bonagura and Schlabach are once again in agreement on a new projected Group of Five champion after the Bulls shocked host Florida, 18-16, on Saturday in Gainesville. South Florida is now the G5 favorite following back-to-back ranked victories over Boise State and the Gators to open the season.

Where they differ is who will secure the fifth overall seed, with Bonagura slotting projected SEC runner-up Georgia landing, while Schlabach believes Oregon will earn the first spot outside the Top 4 as the Big Ten’s third highest-ranked team despite not playing in Indianapolis.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 2

Bonagura: No. 11 Oklahoma at No. 6 Miami
Schlabach: No. 11 Iowa State at No. 6 Georgia

Bonagura and Schlabach are also in agreement that Oklahoma, Week 2’s other big climber, is a legit Playoff contender and will be the SEC’s fourth representative a year after having just three teams in the original 12-team field. They just don’t agree on where the Sooners will land.

Bonagura projects OU will crack the field as the No. 11 seed and will travel to play ACC champion Miami in their first-round game, while Schlabach pits his projected Big 12 champion Iowa State as the No. 11 seed against SEC runner-up Georgia in the first-ever Playoff game from Athens.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 3

Bonagura: No. 10 Iowa State at No. 7 Texas
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State at No. 7 Texas

Some more agreement from the ESPN writers, both of whom slotted preseason No. 1 Texas as their seventh seed and third SEC program in the field despite not making it to Atlanta a second straight year. Arch Manning redeemed his poor Week 1 performance with four passing TDs vs. SJSU.

Bonagura is still not a believer in Iowa State, but still has them making the field despite not winning the Big 12, while Schlabach expects Florida State to continue its strong play after upsetting Alabama in Week 1 to make the 12-team field as the ACC runner-up.

College Football Playoff First Round Game No. 4

Bonagura: No. 9 Utah at No. 8 Florida State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 8 Notre Dame

Bonagura remains especially high on the Utes coming out on top of a highly-competitive Big 12 race and projects a first-round matchup with the Seminoles, who fall short in the ACC title race but still make the field by virture of its non-conference win over Alabama.

Schlabach, meanwhile, rewards the Sooners with the No. 9 seed after its big Top 25 win over Michigan in Week 2, and expects a December date in chilly Indiana against the eighth-seeded Fighting Irish, who once again battle back from an early-season setback to make the 12-team field.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Cotton Bowl

Bonagura: No. 7 Texas vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 4 Miami

The Ducks’ utter decimation of Oklahoma State in a 69-3 blowout Saturday sent a message that Dan Lannings’ squad is once again a true national champion contender and Bonagura rewards them with the No. 2 overall seed and a date with Texas despite losing to Ohio State in the Big Ten title game.

Meanwhile, Schlabach gives the ACC champion Hurricanes the fourth and final automatic bid following another impressive performance from new QB1 Carson Beck in Week 2, though a date with the high-powered Ducks in Dallas will present significant challenges for Miami.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Orange Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 4 Penn State
Schlabach: No. 6 Georgia vs. No. 3 Penn State

Bonagura dropped Georgia out of his Top 4 after Saturday’s uninspired effort against an overmatched Austin Peay squad, and pits them against Big Ten runner-up Penn State in an interesting 4-5 matchup that could help decide this year’s great Big Ten vs. SEC debate.

Much like the AP voters, Schlabach also dinged the Bulldogs for a less-than-encouraging Week 2 outing, dropping Georgia from fourth to the sixth seed, where he expects them to face the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions in Miami.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Rose Bowl

Bonagura: No. 8 Florida State vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 9 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Both ESPN writers remain believers in the reigning national champion Buckeyes a week after their impressive win over Texas in Columbus, and expect Ohio State to hold onto its No. 1 overall seed as the Big Ten champion. It’s who they play where Bonagura and Schlabach differ.

Bonagura expects the Seminoles to get the best of the Big 12 champion Utes in the first round before running into the Buckeyes, while Schlabach gives the Sooners the honor of trying to take down last year’s CFP champion in the same week OU overwhelmed visiting Michigan in Norman.

CFP National Quarterfinal at Sugar Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 3 LSU
Schlabach: No. 10 Florida State vs. No. 2 LSU

Bonagura and Schlabach are both all-in on the Bayou Bengals winning the SEC this season behind the strong right arm of Heisman favorite Garrett Nussmeier, though they differ on which ACC opponent LSU will ultimately face in New Orleans.

Bonagura expects the ACC champion Hurricanes will edge out Oklahoma in their first-round game only to face the SEC’s No. 1 team in its home state, while Schlabach envisions the Tigers effectively hosting the double-digit seeded Seminoles after a first-round upset of Texas.

CFP National Semifinal at Fiesta Bowl

Bonagura: No. 5 Georgia vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 3 Penn State vs. No. 2 LSU

After predicting a couple of interesting upsets in the first round, Bonagura doubles down with two more in the quarterfinals, including projecting the SEC runner-up Bulldogs will get past Penn State only to come face-to-face with the defending national champion Buckeyes in another SEC vs. B10 showdown.

Meanwhile, Schlabach mostly went with the chalk and projects a traditional 2 vs. 3 SEC vs. Big Ten showdown with a national championship berth on the line. He expects the Big Ten runner-up Nittany Lions will get the best of the Bulldogs in the quarters only to run into the SEC champion Tigers in Arizona.

CFP National Semifinal at Peach Bowl

Bonagura: No. 6 Miami vs. No. 2 Oregon
Schlabach: No. 5 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State

Bonagura’s other quarterfinal upset sets up the Mario Cristobal Bowl as Cristobal’s Hurricanes upset SEC champion LSU in the quarters only to face his old Oregon squad in Atlanta for a chance to return home to Miami for this year’s CFP national championship game.

Schlabach, meanwhile, expects a Big Ten championship game rematch in Atlanta, where the Ducks will look to avenge their loss to Ohio State in Indianapolis, while the Buckeyes will look to sweep Oregon to set up the ultimate SEC vs. Big Ten national title game against the SEC champion Tigers.

CFP National Championship

Bonagura: No. 2 Oregon vs. No. 1 Ohio State
Schlabach: No. 2 LSU vs. No. 1 Ohio State

It all comes down to this and both Bonagura and Schlabach are highly confident the reigning national champion Buckeyes will be in Miami to defend last season’s CFP title with an opportunity to become the first back-to-back champ since Georgia did it in 2021-22.

Where they differ is the team that Ohio State will have to beat to achieve that feat, with Bonagura envisioning an All-Big Ten national title game against the Ducks in a rematch from Indianapolis, while Schlabach give fans the SEC vs. Big Ten showdown they want between the two league winners.

ESPN’s full 2025 bowl slate predictions

Saturday, Dec. 13

Cricket Celebration Bowl
Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
Noon ET, ABC
Bonagura: Alabama State vs. South Carolina State
Schlabach: Jackson State vs. South Carolina State

LA Bowl
SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Arizona vs. UNLV
Schlabach: Washington vs. UNLV

Tuesday, Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl
Cramton Bowl (Montgomery, Alabama)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Appalachian State vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Western Kentucky vs. Central Michigan

Wednesday, Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
5 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: UConn vs. Troy
Schlabach: Northern Illinois vs. Troy

68 Ventures Bowl
Hancock Whitney Stadium (Mobile, Alabama)
8:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Marshall vs. Florida International
Schlabach: Georgia Southern vs. Miami (Ohio)

Friday, Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl
Brooks Stadium (Conway, South Carolina)
Noon ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Bowling Green vs. Louisiana Tech
Schlabach: East Carolina vs. James Madison

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Auburn vs. Duke
Schlabach: Vanderbilt vs. Virginia

Monday, Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl
Albertsons Stadium (Boise, Idaho)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Fresno State
Schlabach: Buffalo vs. Air Force

Tuesday, Dec. 23

Boca Raton Bowl
Flagler Credit Union Stadium (Boca Raton, Florida)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Old Dominion vs. Jacksonville State
Schlabach: Boise State vs. Toledo

New Orleans Bowl
Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Texas State vs. Liberty
Schlabach: Louisiana vs. Jacksonville State

Scooter’s Coffee Frisco Bowl
Frisco, Texas
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: UCF vs. Washington State
Schlabach: North Texas vs. New Mexico State

Wednesday, Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawai’i Bowl
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex (Honolulu)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Boise State vs. Central Michigan
Schlabach: Hawai’i vs. Navy

Friday, Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl
Ford Field (Detroit)
1 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan State vs. Ohio
Schlabach: Michigan State vs. Ohio

Rate Bowl
Chase Field (Phoenix)
4:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas vs. Iowa
Schlabach: BYU vs. Minnesota

SERVPRO First Responder Bowl
Gerald J. Ford Stadium (Dallas)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Temple vs. James Madison
Schlabach: Wisconsin vs. Arkansas State

Saturday, Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium (Annapolis, Maryland)
11 am ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Virginia Tech vs. Memphis
Schlabach: Duke vs. Memphis

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl
Yankee Stadium (Bronx, New York)
Noon ET, ABC
Bonagura: Louisville vs. Minnesota
Schlabach: Pittsburgh vs. Iowa

Wasabi Fenway Bowl
Fenway Park (Boston)
2:15 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: NC State vs. UTSA
Schlabach: Boston College vs. Tulane

Pop-Tarts Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3:30 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: Notre Dame vs. Texas Tech
Schlabach: Clemson vs. Texas Tech

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl
Arizona Stadium (Tucson, Arizona)
4:30 pm ET, CW Network
Bonagura: Toledo vs. Hawai’i
Schlabach: Bowling Green vs. Fresno State

Isleta New Mexico Bowl
University Stadium (Albuquerque, New Mexico)
5:45 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Hawai’i vs. Northern Illinois
Schlabach: Colorado State vs. Texas State

TaxSlayer Gator Bowl
EverBank Stadium (Jacksonville, Florida)
7:30 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: SMU vs. Alabama
Schlabach: Georgia Tech vs. Texas A&M

Kinder’s Texas Bowl
NRG Stadium (Houston)
9:15 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: TCU vs. Texas A&M
Schlabach: TCU vs. Ole Miss

Monday, Dec. 29

Birmingham Bowl
Protective Stadium (Birmingham, Alabama)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Kentucky vs. Tulane
Schlabach: Mississippi State vs. North Carolina

Tuesday, Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl
Independence Stadium (Shreveport, Louisiana)
2 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Houston vs. Western Kentucky
Schlabach: Colorado vs. Liberty

Music City Bowl
Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
5:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Nebraska vs. Mississippi State
Schlabach: Michigan vs. Auburn

Valero Alamo Bowl
Alamodome (San Antonio)
9 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: BYU vs. USC
Schlabach: Utah vs. USC

Wednesday, Dec. 31

ReliaQuest Bowl
Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
Noon ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Indiana vs. Ole Miss
Schlabach: Indiana vs. Tennessee

Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl
Sun Bowl Stadium (El Paso, Texas)
2 pm ET, CBS
Bonagura: Pittsburgh vs. Washington
Schlabach: SMU vs. Arizona

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Camping World Stadium (Orlando, Florida)
3 pm ET, ABC
Bonagura: Illinois vs. Tennessee
Schlabach: Illinois vs. Alabama

SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl
Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
3:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Michigan vs. Cal
Schlabach: Nebraska vs. Cal

Friday, Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl
Amon G. Carter Stadium (Fort Worth, Texas)
1 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Kansas State vs. Navy
Schlabach: Kansas vs. Army

AutoZone Liberty Bowl
Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium (Memphis, Tennessee)
4:30 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Baylor vs. Missouri
Schlabach: Baylor vs. Missouri

Duke’s Mayo Bowl
Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, North Carolina)
8 pm ET, ESPN
Bonagura: Georgia Tech vs. South Carolina
Schlabach: NC State vs. South Carolina

Holiday Bowl
Snapdragon Stadium (San Diego)
8 pm ET, FOX
Bonagura: Clemson vs. Arizona State
Schlabach: Louisville vs. Arizona State