Can the Commodores Bounce Back? Vanderbilt at Auburn Quick Preview
Date: February 10, 2026
Time: 6:00pm CST
TV: SECN
Radio: 92.9 FM
Spread
Auburn -4.5
O/U 162.5
AP Rank
Auburn – NA
Vandy – 19
Kenpom Rank
Auburn -30
Vandy- 14
Net Rank
Auburn -31
Vandy – 14
Analytics
Adjusted Offensive Efficiency:
- Auburn: 125.0
- Vanderbilt: 123.9
Adjusted Defensive Efficiency:
- Auburn: 103.1
- Vanderbilt: 97.0
Adjusted Tempo:
- Auburn: 67.4
- Vanderbilt: 70.2
Average Possession Length:
- Auburn: 17.2
- Vanderbilt: 15.9
Effective FG%:
- Auburn: 53.1%
- Vanderbilt: 56.7%
Leading Scorers
- Auburn: Xzayvier Brown (16.4), Nijel Pack (15.8)
- Vanderbilt: Tyler Tanner (17.8 ppg), Tyler Nickel (14.5 ppg)
What to Expect
Vanderbilt took a beating from Oklahoma, at home, in its last game. It was another troubling showing from an undermanned Commodores squad.
Vandy is likely without two of its three best guards, Duke Miles and Frankie Collins, once again. Miles is a terrific defender who also averages 16 points per game, while Collins is another strong defensive option.
Without Miles and Collins, Vanderbilt has to roll with a three-big lineup. AK Okereke is Vandy’s backup point guard, and he’s a comfortable ball-handler, but he’s not the shooter that Miles is. Alongside Okereke is Jalen Washington at 6-foot-10, 230 pounds, but he’s also not a shooter.
The same applies to Devin McGlockton, who usually plays a small-ball five role but is less effective at the four due to his limited shooting.
The Commodores only really have two scoring options right now. Tyler Tanner is the go-to guy, leading the team with 18.4 points per game and scoring 37 points Saturday. Tyler Nickel is the other double-digit scorer, averaging 14 points a night while shooting 45% from deep. Nickel has had a hard time really getting going in games this season where he’s face guarded nearly every possession.
It’s just hard to put faith in Vandy with only two reliable scorers. Can Tyler Harris or Mike James come off the bench and score 10? Sure, but neither is reliable enough to assume that happens on a game-by-game basis.
In January, Vanderbilt had a mediocre 6-4 record, despite once being one of the last five unbeaten squads in the nation. The Dores’ underlying numbers have also taken a nosedive, ranking 34th in offensive efficiency and 30th in defensive efficiency, per Bart Torvik.
Defending the rim is a chore, as they’re allowing opponents to shoot 55% on 2s. They’re also sending teams to the foul line at a 38% rate in those 10 games.
Auburn has a sour taste in its mouth after losing to Alabama in its last game. The Tigers are clearly an NCAA Tournament team, but finding a way to avoid the 8/9 seed line is a top priority for Auburn.
Want to hear a wild stat? Auburn is 10th in offensive efficiency during its 5-5 run in January. For such an elite offense, you’d probably expect the Tigers to shoot a decent percentage from deep. However, Auburn is at 29% from downtown in those 10 games.
How have the Tigers made up for the shooting? Doing all the little things. They turn the ball over just 13.4% of the time, get to the foul line at a 48% rate and grab 38% of their missed shots.
Keyshawn Hall is the main reason for Auburn’s consistent scoring, leading the team with 21 points and 7.8 rebounds per game. He also ranks top-30 in free-throw rate and shoots 39% from deep. Hall could be the SEC Player of the Year, and this matchup is advantageous for him.
The reality for the shooting issues is that Tahaad Pettiford has to get it rolling. On Saturday, Pettiford scored 25 and hit three 3s against Bama. We’ll see if that’s a springboard for future performances for Pettiford.
On the defensive end, Auburn is allowing teams to shoot 35.8% from deep this season. Things have only gotten worse, as opponents are drilling 39% from 3 against the Tigers in their last 10 games.
Defense won’t be their strength, though. They rank 69th in defensive efficiency, per KenPom. It’s just about getting enough stops for their offense to get in gear.
I could see this one getting a bit ugly for Vanderbilt. The backcourt injury issues will hinder Vandy’s ability to expose Auburn’s defensive hardships.
Plus, I expect the Tigers to draw fouls all day against a defense that constantly hacks. Hall could go for 30+ and reach the foul line double-digit times.
Chef Miller’s Predicted Score: Vandy 74 Auburn 80
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