Luckett's Locks: We Are Due

The Fade Luckett principle has never been stronger than in Week 11. We have come very close to rock bottom.

We went an astounding 0-6 against the spread (ATS) last week and were never close to getting a cover. What a year it has been.

Our record now stands at 26-39-1 ATS, but we’re not quitting. I’ve crunched the numbers and have pulled out six more plays for Week 12. This is your time to fade if you want to ride a hot trend.

Florida at Vanderbilt Over 57

Things have been somewhat rocky in year one for Billy Napier at Florida, but now the Gators have a great shot to finish the year at 8-4 after consecutive double-digit wins over Texas A&M and South Carolina. The Gators have a dynamic rushing attack that ranks No. 6 in EPA and that should lead to a big performance on the road. Napier’s offense has rushed for over 290 yards in each of the last two outings.

The No. 1 job for Clark Lea when he took the Vanderbilt job was to end the long SEC losing streak the Commodores had. That happened last week with a huge win on the road over ranked Kentucky. Now the Dores have an opportunity to score some points against a bad Florida defense. Look for the Vandy rushing attack to have a big day against a porous Florida run defense.

Florida and Vanderbilt might have the two worst defenses in the SEC while each offense is playing with a ton of confidence. The Dores have some real momentum after last week’s win and should play well on Saturday. That all leads to an over play as the winner could easily get into the 40s on Saturday.

Washington State at Arizona (+4)

Jake Dickert has done a solid job in his first full season at Washington State. The Cougars are a top-40 team with a very good run defense. FCS transfer Cameron Ward has been solid but not great in his first year in the Power Five playing in this Air Raid scheme. The path to 8-4 is there for Wazzu highlighted by a big home matchup with Washington next week.

Speaking of big statement wins, Arizona got a significant one last week in year two under Jedd Fisch as the Wildcats knocked off No. 12 UCLA on the road. The defense has been very bad in Tucson, but the offense is doing good things ranking No. 18 in success rate and No. 33 in points per drive. Fisch’s team enters week 12 at 4-6 but has winnable home games remaining to get to bowl eligibility.

Washington State finds itself in a look-ahead spot, and Arizona has momentum. The Wildcats need two home wins to get bowl eligible and have a passing attack that could give the Cougars some problems. A home upset is very possible here.

Take the dog.

NC State at Louisville Under 44

NC State was dealt a tough blow when star quarterback Devin Leary was lost for the season, and the Wolfpack have suffered because of that. This offense has yet to reach 5.0 yards per play in a game without Leary as the rushing attack is bad (No. 104 in success rate, No. 94 in EPA), and that is not helping a young QB thrive. However, the defense is playing at a high enough level to win games.

One of the best turnarounds in-season happened at Louisville as Scott Satterfield’s fourth team won four consecutive games over a month before losing to No. 10 Clemson on the road last week. Surprisingly, the Cards are doing it with defense ranking No. 12 in EPA, No. 14 in points per drive, and No. 24 in success rate. Meanwhile, Malik Cunningham‘s status is up in the air as the super senior quarterback is dealing with a left hand and right shoulder injury.

All signs point to this matchup being a total slugfest. The temperature in Louisville will be in the 30s with some wind gusts that could reach 30 mph. That could make the passing game and kicking game pretty difficult. A field position battle should break out, and that should lead to an under.

Texas Tech at Iowa State (-3.5)

Joey McGuire has done a solid job in year one at Texas Tech as the Red Raiders sit at 5-5 and have winnable games remaining against Iowa State and Oklahoma. The Red Raiders are running an Air Raid offense, but have had some issues throwing the football due to a lot of QB changes. However, the ground game has picked up the slack (No. 29 in success rate), and the defense has had some good moments.

Surprisingly, Matt Campell’s Iowa State team could be sitting at home this bowl season as the Cyclones need two more wins to get to 6-6. Offensive ineptitude has been the story of the season in Ames as Iowa State is scoring just 16.6 points per game against power conference competition. However, the defense has been dynamite ranking No. 11 in EPA and No. 9 in points per drive.

It will be under 20 degrees when these two teams face off at Jack Trice Stadium. Give me the team with a dominant defense in a must-win spot. Lay the points with the small home favorite.

UAB at LSU (-15)

Things have not gone well for interim head coach Bryant Vincent at UAB. The Blazers are 5-5 and officially out of the C-USA title hunt. Despite having a good passing game and the nation’s leading rusher in DeWayne McBride (1,407 yards, 17 touchdowns), this team is 0-5 in one-score games.

LSU clinched the SEC West title last weekend with a road win over Arkansas as a case can be made that Brian Kelly should bring home national coach of the year honors. This is not a vintage great LSU team, but the Tigers have efficiency on both offense and defense and are improving with each week. Arizona State transfer Jayden Daniels has emerged as a real playmaker at quarterback with 24 total touchdowns.

It’s the final night game at Death Valley this season and the crowd will be gassed up after the Tigers won the division title. Expect a raucous environment. UAB could provide a good challenge, but these are teams heading in opposite directions. The Bayou Bengals should pull away late for a comfortable win.

Lay the double-digits.

Best Bet: Tennessee (-22.5) at South Carolina

Tennessee has the top offense in college football as the Vols are averaging 47.4 points per game and rank No. 12 in success rate. Hendon Hooker is a Heisman Trophy candidate, and the defense is very good when they are allowed to play with a lead. Plus, it seems clear that Josh Heupel believes in style points after the Vols ran up the score last week against Missouri.

After a nice run in the middle of the season, that has disappeared after losses to Missouri and Florida where the offense was horrific. The Gamecocks are No. 80 in success rate and No. 80 in points per drive. Spencer Rattler is struggling, and the offense will be without star tailback MarShawn Lloyd again. Offensive coordinator Marcus Satterfield is under fire. Meanwhile, this defense ranks No. 113 in success rate and is horrific against the run.

Tennessee seems determined to pile up blowouts on their way to an 11-1 finish. It’s also clear that South Carolina’s defense is not going to have many answers to stop this Tennessee offense. Heupel’s foot will be on the gas from start to finish.

Tennessee will flirt with a fiftyburger while it’s hard to envision South Carolina getting to three touchdowns. Lay the double-digits with the big road favorite.