Covering the Tracks: Purdue-Notre Dame

Purdue-Notre Dame from a gambling perspective

Recap

Column stays perfect and moves to 4-0 as Purdue covers the spread against USC and the total stays under.  We also cashed a nice +400 Ryan Browne anytime touchdown scorer with one of the dumbest (just like they drew it up) touchdowns of all time.

Betting Numbers

Current Betting breakdowns as of 8:00 am on 9/19/25 via BetMGM:

Current spread: Purdue +24.5 (Opened Purdue +26.5).

Moneyline: Purdue +1200, ND -3000

1H Spread: Purdue +14.5, O/U 27.5

Over/Under: 51.5 (Opened 54.5)

Season Records ATS

Purdue: 2-1 ATS, O/U 0-3

Notre Dame: 0-2 ATS, O/U 2-0

Betting Percentage Breakdown (AKA, the Splits)

Bets: 42% on Purdue, 46% on over

Money: 47% on Purdue, 40% on over

Executive Summary

 Purdue looks to build on the positives from the USC game while cutting out turnovers.  Notre Dame has its back against the wall in a must-win game for its playoff aspirations.  Coach Barry Odom’s teams have been a cover machine as away underdogs.  Notre Dame has been relatively mundane against the spread as a home favorite with just about a 52% cover rate under Coach Marcus Freeman.  Typically, games in South Bend with Notre Dame as the favorite have gone over.  The money is slightly more on Notre Dame than Purdue, but there is more money % on Purdue than there is bet & which suggests potential sharp movement.  Purdue was bet earlier in the week, and the spread dropped, causing Notre Dame money to come in.  Purdue’s defense has started slow, but gotten better as the game has gone on, suggesting a potential 1H edge.

Trend Analysis for Notre Dame

· UNLV was 6-1 ATS as an away underdog under Coach Barry Odom.

· UNLV was 9-2 ATS against non-conference opponents under Odom.

· UNLV was 3-4 ATS after a loss under Odom.

· Odom moves to 2-0 ATS as a 20 point dog or more.  UNLV covered against Michigan and Purdue covered against USC last weekend.

· Notre Dame is 9-8 ATS as a home favorite under Coach Marcus Freeman.

· Notre Dame is 5-4 ATS after a loss under Freeman.

· The over was 2-1 when UNLV was a home underdog under Odom.

· The over is 11-7 when Notre Dame is a home favorite under Freeman.

· The over is 6-3 after a Notre Dame loss under Freeman.

Miscellaneous Factors

· 66-7.  The showdown between Purdue and Notre Dame in 2024 ended up being the microcosm for Purdue’s entire season.  After a 70 yard touchdown run occurred before most people were in the stadium, Notre Dame went on to hang 66 points on the Boilers before a 4Q touchdown ended the shutout.  Coming into the game, Purdue wondered what Purdue was, and while some fans (including myself) were particularly optimistic after a 49-0 beating of Indiana State, the game showed Purdue did not have the talent or coaching to compete.  This year, we know a little more about Purdue than last year, thanks to the USC game last weekend.  Luckily for Purdue, only a few guys remain from that thrashing last year, but with the Boilers facing a vaunted rival in their first road game, can we expect the same uptick in performance from this 2025 Purdue team compared to last year?  The talent gap is wide, but can Odom coach his way into making this a game?  Rivalry games can bring the best out.  Odom’s UNLV teams went 3-0 against rivals in 2023 and 2024.

· Welcome back, Joey Tanona and Nitro Tuggle. It will be a reunion of sorts for two Purdue Boilermakers in South Bend on Saturday.  Joey Tanona returns for the first time since he left the team following a car crash that jeopardized his health and football career.  I imagine it will be an emotional day for Tanona, who has overcome a great deal to reach this point.  I expect a great game from him.  Similarly, but different, Nitro Tuggle returns to South Bend in the old gold and black, fresh off his transfer from Georgia.  A four-star WR out of Northwoods High School in Nappanee, Indiana, a South Bend suburb, Tuggle will likely have a lot of friends and family in the stands to support the Boilermaker Saturday.  Breakout game incoming.

· Freeman Familiarity.  For the second week in a row, we have a game featuring a coach going up against his former employer.  Marcus Freeman assisted in overseeing the Boilermaker defense under Coach Hazell in the early 2010s.  A clear rising star back then, it was a fast track to Cincinnati and then South Bend, where Freeman found himself the next head coach of Notre Dame.  While many from the Hazell staff faltered, Freeman rose above.  A genuinely great person and a hell of a coach, Freeman will look to continue his winning ways against Purdue.  It is worth noting that USC had success last year against Freeman, where current Purdue OC Josh Henson was the OC.  Henson should be pretty familiar with Freeman and this Notre Dame defense, even with Al Golden’s departure.    

Gambling Analysis

Numbers: We have some TIGHT numbers this week.  For the first time in what feels like forever, the betting splits are almost 50/50.  Purdue saw some early money come in to start the week, but since the initial push, it has been skewed to Notre Dame.  There is a minor contrarian edge with Purdue, since they have less of the money on them, and there is a tiny sharp buy, with 5% more of the money on Purdue than the bet percentage.  Neither is enough to really influence an edge strongly.  The total is very similar, with a slight majority of the bets being on the Under, but more money than bets being placed on the Under.  The public typically does not like overs, unless of course it is an Iowa game or the service academies are playing.  So, to see them take one here is a bit of a head scratcher.  An unstoppable force meets an immovable object as the undefeated unders for Purdue take on the undefeated overs for Notre Dame.  Something has got to give.  My concern is that the betting numbers are so close, the spread may be pretty dead on.   EDGE: Miniscule edge Purdue +25.5, Total Push

Trends: Coach Odom has been incredible as an away underdog in his coaching career.  With UNLV, Odom’s teams covered at a 90% rate as an away underdog.  This is Brohm-esque in terms of underdog cover ability.  What is fascinating with Odom is his teams have covered better on the road as an underdog than they have at home.  Fascinating development to watch going forward.  Notre Dame has been very average, with minimal deviation, at home ATS under Freeman and as a home favorite.  They cover around 52% of the time, nothing to write home about.  However, the overs have been a cash cow for the Irish, particularly at home.  This was showcased last week with the barn-burner that was ND-TAMU.  Ultimately, Odom’s track record as an away underdog, and especially as an underdog of 20 or more points, along with Notre Dame’s ability to put points at home (or have points put up on them), gives us the leans here.   EDGE: Purdue, Over.

Situation:  Did anyone expect a 0-2 Notre Dame team fresh off a national championship appearance?  After late losses to Miami and Texas A & M (both respectable losses), Notre Dame faces Purdue for the second year in a row after a loss.  Last year, the Huskies from Northern Illinois delivered a massive upset to the Irish the week before facing Purdue.  Notre Dame has their back against the wall in a situation where another loss may cost it a playoff birth.  The public, which typically backs the Irish, has faltered in its support as evidenced by the Purdue money being almost 50%.  There is a shift in Notre Dame perception that this is not the 2024 Fighting Irish.  Similarly, the public perception seems to be shifting on Purdue as well.  While the score from last week reads 16, Purdue had every opportunity last week to get a win against a good USC team as a 21 point underdog.  The Boilers’ defense played great in the 2nd half, and if a couple of turnovers had not occurred, it may have been a completely different result.  As crazy as this is to write, Notre Dame has a situational advantage, given the start to their season.  Typically, you would see people all over Notre Dame with the logic of “no way ND fails to cover three in a row”.  That is not really the case here.  The perception regarding the total is also interesting.  Purdue’s offense has not really put up points this year, and this does seem to suggest that the public thinks the Notre Dame defense can limit the Boilers’ scoring.  Notre Dame put up points last week, but their offense has still been largely unimpressive.  The money slightly favors Notre Dame, and the under suggests a general public belief that Purdue will not score much.  This bodes well situationally for the Purdue offense.    EDGE: Notre Dame, Over.

Total Analysis:  Odom’s proven ability to cover as an away underdog gets the nod here, and it should be no surprise given his old-school nature and attention to detail.  Purdue’s offense has struggled to put up points, but the box score from USC does not tell the full story.  While the USC defense is not the Notre Dame defense, the Notre Dame defense has shown some weakness so far this season.  There is still a significant talent gap here, and I expect Notre Dame to have plenty of success running the football.  Purdue’s defense has adjusted in its last two games at halftime, with a significantly better second half than the first.  Notre Dame may get out to a quick start. Can Purdue hold?  Ryan Browne will need to play virtually mistake-free football to give Purdue a chance.  Unfortunately, Notre Dame talent prevails, but the Boilers get two touchdowns on the board to cover.  Notre Dame 38 – Purdue 14.   

Official Plays: 1 Unit Purdue +24.5, 1 Unit Over 51.5 (at least if Purdue gets 60 hung on them, the over hits).  .25 Units on Purdue +1200, why not.

UNIT COUNTER YTD: +4.22 Units

Bonus Bets: For anytime touchdown scorers, BetMGM has Jeremiyah Love at -500, which is insane to me value-wise.  Jadarian Price at -165 is not very juicy, but I think there is still some value given ND’s love for both backs.  I see minimal value in Mockobee, which is just listed at +105.  The value to me lies in Purdue’s receivers.  Michael Jackson III (+400), Arhmad Branch (+425), and Nitro Tuggle (+500) all offer much value.  Browne seemed to develop some chemistry last weekend with EJ Horton, who is at +650.  If I had to pick one?  Tuggle on his homecoming to the South Bend area.  BetMGM thinks Purdue’s passing game will struggle.  Browne’s passing total is listed at 167.5, with the receiving props for MJIII at 36.5 and Branch at 31.5.  Either Mockobee is going to get many touches, or the Notre Dame defense is going to shut Browne down per the odds.

Welcome to the 2025 edition of Covering the Tracks.  This column is a weekly preview of the upcoming Purdue game through the lens of gambling metrics.  The age-old saying is that Vegas always wins, so building upon that, we have decided to break down the game using pieces of information that Vegas and sportsbooks so graciously provide us.  Whether you choose to dabble in sports gambling or you’re just an avid Purdue fan who craves any piece of content on the Boilers leading up to game time (or both!), I hope this article can provide some helpful insight to preview the game.   For those unfamiliar with sports gambling terminology, there is a glossary at the end.  I use lines provided by BetMGM sportsbook, but in no way, shape, or form should this be an endorsement of their sportsbook. Disclaimer for those who gamble: ensure you manage your bankroll effectively, bet responsibly, and never bet more than you can afford to lose.   

Glossary:

The spread: Arguably the most used term in all of gambling, the spread refers to the handicapped line set by the sportsbook. For those new to gambling, think of the spread as a prediction by the sports book, given all the circumstances, of what the difference between the two teams are. The favorite will be listed with a negative spread, while the underdog will have a positive spread. The spread is put in place as a handicap to make the underdog and favorite more equal. For example, if Purdue is -4.5 against an opponent, a sportsbook would expect Purdue to win by 4.5 points.  It is worth noting that the sportsbooks are in the money-making business.  So a spread may not necessarily be an accurate depiction of what the sportsbooks think will happen, but rather, at what spread number can the sportsbook generate action on one side while comfortably limiting their exposure to a big loss.

Odds and How to Read Them: The ability to read odds provides a gambler with insight into how a sportsbook, also known as “Vegas,” views a particular bet. The most common types of odds on sports bets will range from -105 to -115. -115 odds mean that to win $10, a person would need to bet $11.50. Conversely, if the odds are favorable, +115, then a bettor who bets $10 would win $11.50. To calculate ML odds for unfavorable odds, take negative Moneyline odds / (Moneyline odds + 100) * 100 = Implied probability. So, if the odds are -115, then 115/(115+100)*100 = 53.5%.

Betting against the spread: Betting against the spread (“ATS”) means you are taking Purdue -4.5 (-4.5 in my example above; obviously, this number would change week to week) or, hypothetically, the other team +4.5. To cover the spread betting on Purdue, Purdue needs to win by five or more.

Cover: This means a team won ATS. If Purdue beats the hypothetical team above by 1, Purdue has won the game, but Purdue did not cover.

Money line: Money line (“ML”) is the odds given on a particular team to win outright. Payouts can be significantly more or less than betting the spread. For example, betting on a big favorite to win on ML will not yield a very high return. Conversely, betting on a big underdog to win could sometimes pay out double or even triple your original bet. It all depends on the odds.

Over/Under: Over/unders are a type of bets that refer to how many total points will be scored in a game. For example, if the sportsbook sets an over/under of 49, bettors will bet under if they believe fewer than 49 points will be scored and vice versa.

Sharp Bettor: A sharp bettor is a bettor who has shown the ability to turn a profit over the long run. These are generally gamblers who have demonstrated a history of success. Sharp bettors are very useful in identifying value in a particular bet.

Juice: Juice may be the most confusing aspect for new gamblers or those unfamiliar with gambling. In simple terms, juice is the percentage sportsbooks take on a given wager. Sportsbooks use juice to make their profit. To do this, odds for a bet with a sports book usually are -115 or -110 for both sides of the spread. To win $10, you need to be $11.50. That means either way, the sportsbook is gaining a profit because each side is losing $1.50 per bet. This is the juice.

If there is a definition not listed that would be helpful, please let me know.

MORE: Weekly Word: Purdue vs. Notre Dame, quarterback play and more | Matchup preview: Purdue-Notre Dame | Saturday provides full-circle moment for Purdue’s Joey Tanona in South Bend | Opponent view: Notre Dame | The 3-2-1: Deciphering disconcerting signals, genesis of ‘Nitro,’ maturation of a QB and more | Potential turning into production for Purdue’s Nitro Tuggle | Barry Odom, Purdue brace for test at tradition-rich Notre Dame | First Look: Notre Dame | First and 10: Purdue at Notre Dame