Pittman relying on 'feel' for fourth-down decisions
Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman has had the reins of his Razorback program for six years now, and how he’s handled decisions on fourth downs has changed in that time.
With the rise of analytics across college football making its way into how teams handle fourth-down decisions, more teams are opting to go for it instead of either punting or sending out the field goal unit, depending on what the analytics say is the best route.
Pittman explained his process for how he used to handle those decisions, and then also described his process now.
“I was extremely conservative early in my career,” Pittman said on the SEC Teleconference on Wednesday. “There was year three, when I became ultra-analytical, which didn’t work out well.”
Now, Pittman said he still refers to the analytics, which is handled by tight ends coach Morgan Turner up in the booth, but he relies on his gut and how the game is going to make those decisions.
“Now it’s going back to feel, like I was the firs two years and last year,” Pittman said. “A feel of where we’re at in the game, obviously field position and how our offense has been moving the football and watching practice and what our plans are on 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-1.”
Arkansas’ fourth-down conversion rates
In last week’s season opener against Alabama A&M, Arkansas didn’t attempt a fourth-down conversion, mostly because they didn’t have to. The Hogs rolled to an easy 52-7 win over the Bulldogs.
Looking at last season, though, Pittman’s gut feel wasn’t terribly off. The Razorbacks attempted 23 fourth-down conversions and converted on 14 of those for a 60.9% conversion rate.
That conversion rate is good for 36th nationally, but only 27 teams went for it on fourth-down more than the Hogs did. Minnesota led the nation percentage-wise, but only attempted 11 compared to Arkansas’ 23.
Compare that to the 2023 season, in which Pittman said he was full-on relying on the analytics to inform his decision in this regard. Interestingly, his team had a higher conversion percentage, but he opted to go for it less.
According to CFBStats.com, Arkansas’ conversion rate in 2023 was 62.5% through 12 games, but the Hogs only attempted 16 fourth-down conversions compared to 2024, and they converted 10 of those.
With another 11 games left on Arkansas’ schedule for the 2025 season, it remains to be seen how much differently those numbers turn out. But he hasn’t thrown the analytics out the window.
“Morgan Turner runs that book for us, and if I decide to ask for it he’s readily available to tell me,” Pittman said. “But I told him don’t tell me unless I ask because, again, it’s more of a feel to me right now.”
