Three thoughts and Bracketology update...

Back in the friendly confines of their own home arena, Thursday night felt like a good spot for the Iowa Women’s Basketball team to bounce back after a tough trip out west. Instead, a Minnesota squad destined for the NCAA Tournament won at Carver for the first time since 2007, defeating the Hawkeyes 91-85 for their third consecutive loss. With the defeat, Iowa falls to 18-5 on the season and 9-3 in Big Ten play.

Here are my biggest thoughts from the Hawkeyes loss to the Gophers and what it means going forward…

1. The Hawkeyes have hit a wall defensively at a time where the offense is trying to account for lost scorer

When Taylor McCabe went down with a torn ACL, the questions that arose were about how the Hawkeyes were going to account for her offensive impact, rather than her defense. With her out of the lineup, the coaching staff has had to roll out different lineup combos for longer periods of time, and they have less lineup flexibility. Is it a coincidence that Iowa’s defense has taken a tumble since her injury? Maybe, but maybe not. However, over the last three games, the defense is giving up 86.7 points per game and 1.75 points per possession, while opponents are shooting 51.5% from the floor and 49.1% from three-point range. Whether it’s a lack of effort, lack of attention to detail or poor execution on the court, it has to get figured out. Defense has been their calling card for the first year and a half of Jan Jensen’s tenure and this is by far their worst stretch on that end of the floor. It’s going to be hard to win if they continue to give up similar numbers.

2. Chit-Chat Wright and Journey Houston’s play has been overshadowed by the losses

Anytime a team is on a losing streak, the bright spots are hard to see. That being said, if the Hawkeyes could iron some things out and get back on track, what they’ve gotten from Chit-Chat Wright and Journey Houston as of late has to be promising. Although Chit-Chat put up just 18 points on 6-of-19 (31.6%) shooting during the west coast trip, she tallied 15 assists to just three turnovers. Against the Gophers, she was more efficient, totaling 20 points on 6-of-11 shooting, including five made threes, while she finished with 12 assists to just one turnover. Over her last three, Wright has 27 assists to four turnovers and that’s while playing 118:03 of 120 minutes.

As for Journey Houston, she’s really stepped up in the scoring department, averaging 12.7 points on 58.3% shooting over the last three games. Her rebounding has been a spark all year, grabbing 13.75 boards per 40, but her increased scoring, including 15 points against Minnesota, is a welcomed development.

The next step is getting Addie Deal and Kylie Feuerbach on track. They’ve fallen on tough times, combining for just 15 points on 5-of-31 (16.1%) shooting during the losing streak.

3. The Hawkeyes are playing with fire, but it can be put out when the Huskies come to town next week

In my preview of the Minnesota game, I mentioned that it was not a must-win game, but the Hawkeyes probably didn’t want to mess with a three-game losing streak at this point of the season. Here we are, let’s mess with it. The Big Ten has one elite team and that’s UCLA, but they are deep with good teams that can win on any given night, so losses can pile up. Now, facing a three-game skid, Iowa has #24 Washington at home before a road trip to Nebraska. Neither of those are “get right” games, so they’ll have to figure it out in the film room and in the practice gym.

For the next six days, the Hawkeyes are going to be stuck in limbo. They are, in fact, playing with fire. The three-game streak could easily become a four, or even five-game losing streak if they’re not careful. The fire could also be doused with a win over the Huskies next Wednesday. That would restore some order and calm the rising tensions amongst the fanbase.

The latest on the Bracketology front…

ESPN – 3 Seed – Despite the three-game slide, the Hawkeyes are still projected as a 3 seed in the Forth Worth 3 region as of Friday morning. Charlie Creme has Iowa as a regional host and facing off against 14 seed Idaho in the opening round. The second round matchup would be against 6 seed North Carolina or 11 seed Rice. Rounding out the projected top seeds in this region are Texas (1), Louisville (2), Ole Miss (4), West Virginia (5) and Illinois (7).

The good news for the Hawkeyes is that their 18-2 start that banked them six Q1 wins gave them some margin for error when it came to staying on the right side of the NCAA Tournament hosting bubble. The bad news is that they may be close to using up all that room for error. Still projected as a 3 seed in the latest update by Charlie Creme, a loss to Washington next week might not knock them to the wrong side of the hosting bubble, but they’d be firmly on it. They are still tied for third in the country in Q1 wins (6), but their drop from 8-2 to 8-5 against Q1/2 opponents has given them less of a lead over others in the conversation.

There are still opportunities to bolster their resume even if another loss (or two) comes their way at some point. They play five more games against Q1/2 opponents and four games against NET top 35 teams, including three of them at home. Again, because of the work they did earlier in the year, including wins over #9 Ohio State, #12 Michigan State, #15 Baylor and #22 Maryland, they still sit in a good position.

The remaining schedule

Quad 1: @Nebraska (24), Michigan (6)

Quad 2: Washington (30), @Purdue (71), Illinois (33)

Quad 3: @Wisconsin (81)