KSR Staff Predictions: Kentucky vs. Texas

by: KSR10/17/25

Kentucky QB Cutter Boley took a hit in 2024 at Texas, via Ricardo B. Brazziell:USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images — Kentucky QB Cutter Boley took a hit in 2024 at Texas, via Ricardo B. Brazziell/USA TODAY Network via Imagn Images

The stars at night are big and bright, deep in the heart of Texas. How bright are they in Lexington? We’ll find out Saturday when the Longhorns make their first trip to Central Kentucky to play the Wildcats on the gridiron.

The Longhorns struggled out of the gate. Arch Manning has not looked like the Chosen One. After losing a close one at Ohio State in the opener, Texas stumbled in its first SEC contest, falling at Florida, but secured a big rivalry win in the Cotton Bowl last week against Oklahoma. This is the perfect let-down spot. Can Kentucky take advantage and secure a monumental upset? The KSR crew shares their selections.

Nick Roush

The time is right for Kentucky to take advantage of a vulnerable Texas team. Fresh off their first feel-good win of the season, the Horns have to go back on the road to play a night game in the SEC. Unfortunately, Kentucky has been really bad at taking advantage of these situations as of late. They stink out of bye weeks and have lost five straight home night games in SEC play.

The Texas defense is dominant, but Florida showed that you can run north-south on this team. Kentucky will likely have an exceptional opening drive, but once the script ends, it’s hard to foresee Cutter Boley having a ton of success against one of the top defenses in all of college football.

Manning will be starting with a new center on the road. The defensive line can own that mismatch, but it’s probably not enough. Manning is exceptional at navigating pressure, and he has the legs that can make them pay, like the last two quarterbacks Kentucky faced. This secondary will likely be the antidote for what ails Arch, leading to a career day that gets ugly in the third quarter.

Score: Texas 34, Kentucky 10

Drew Franklin

Even with signs of growth out of the bye week, which is rare around here, it’s hard to see Kentucky keeping up with Texas for four quarters. The Wildcats haven’t scored more than two offensive touchdowns against a power opponent in two years, and Texas’ defense just held No. 6 Oklahoma to six points in their rivalry game last Saturday.

Cutter Boley should continue to progress, but the Longhorns’ physicality and speed on defense will be too much, and it doesn’t help that Texas is in desperation mode to make the CFP. Kentucky will hang around early, but the points simply won’t be there to pull off the upset.

Score: Texas 31, Kentucky 13

Tyler Thompson

Texas needs a win to stay in the CFP conversation, and Kentucky needs a win to turn a disastrous season around. It’s hard to have a lot of faith in the latter, especially when you consider Texas’ defense ranks third in the country, holding teams to an average of 11 points per game, a number Kentucky has barely surpassed in SEC play.

On the other side of the ball, preseason heir apparent Arch Manning had a bit of a breakthrough vs. Oklahoma. It just feels like he’s due for a big day in Lexington — although his offensive line is battling injuries. This game will follow a familiar script. Kentucky will play well out of the gate and get our hopes up before Texas takes control in the second half and runs away with it. Cutter Boley played admirably in the second half in Austin last season, so hopefully, he keeps his head up and we see more from Kentucky’s young wide receivers.

Score: Texas 31, Kentucky 10

Zack Geoghegan

There could be a lot of burnt orange in the Kroger Field stands for this one. As mentioned above several times, the Texas defense is among the best in the country. That immediately scares me. Can Kentucky manage to put together multiple offensive scoring drives? Recent history tells us no. It’s hard to see the ‘Cats overcoming just one offensive touchdown. Brad White’s defense will need to step up and make a couple of momentum-shifting plays to give UK a chance.

On the flip side, Arch Manning shouldn’t strike much fear into Kentucky. He’s been good as of late, but far from great. Texas has scored just 23 and 21 points over its last two games. That might end up being more than enough, though. And in the end, I believe it will be.

Score: Texas 27, Kentucky 13

Adam Luckett

Kentucky is not good out of the bye week. Everyone knows this at this point. Kentucky has not scored more than two offensive touchdowns against a power conference opponent since 2023. Everyone knows this. Kentucky’s defense has a massive tackling problem. Everyone knows this.

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But this is a real letdown spot for Texas. The Horns are 2-2 outright and 0-4 ATS in the game after Red River under Steve Sarkisian. That includes just a touchdown win with a playoff team against a bad Houston team. Surprisingly, an offense led by a Manning is in the bottom half of the SEC. This is the worst offense Sarkisian has been a part of since his days at Washington over a decade ago.

This one will be closer than you expect for most of the game. I think a similar game script to last year’s 13-12 loss to Georgia is in play. UK runs the ball effectively, take care of the football, doesn’t ask their young quarterback to do too much, and plays inspired on defense. That will not be enough to win the game due to the offense’s inability to finish drive, but they will have more than a puncher’s chance in the fourth quarter.

Kentucky plays hard and executes its game plan. The Horns add a late touchdown to turn what was a one-possession game all night into a double-digit win.

Score: Texas 24, Kentucky 10

Jack Pilgrim

Mark Stoops coming off a bye week? Absolutely not. Not now, not ever. There is no amount of work that can be done or looking into things that this staff can do to make me believe this is the breakthrough moment we’ve all been waiting for in terms of preparation or execution. I’ve been burned far too many times.

But that doesn’t mean things can’t get interesting at the Kroge.

The Arch Manning-led offense isn’t humming the way the Longhorns expected, and while the defense is stout, Kentucky can have a good day on the ground with Seth McGowan leading the charge. And don’t forget: Cutter Boley stepped up in this matchup last year and is coming off his best performance against teams with a pulse at Georgia. He found something there with true freshman Cameron Miller, too.

With the staff coaching for their jobs at this point, the Wildcats put up a strong fight, even in defeat. It’s a step in the right direction as they hit the midway point of the season with some winnable games down the stretch.

Score: Texas 27, Kentucky 17

Jacob Polacheck

Texas enters the game as a heavy favorite and I’m not expecting Kentucky to keep things close.

I’m predicting a big game for Arch Manning while Texas keeps Kentucky’s running game in check. UK will need to establish the run early but if UT’s defensive line holds, could be a long day for Kentucky.

Score: Texas 31, Kentucky 7

Country Boy’s Prediction

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