SEC East Reset: Where the division stands at the midway point

Heading into the 2022 season, Georgia entered the year as the defending national champions and was once again the heavy favorite to win the SEC East for the fifth time in six seasons. However, it appeared that the rest of the division was starting to close the gap.

Kentucky and Tennessee entered the year with proven star quarterbacks and a coaching staff that the fanbases were all-in on. Florida, Missouri, and South Carolina had new coaches who were hoping to show some proof of concept early in their tenure. Vanderbilt was looking to take the next step in the early process of a long rebuild.

Entering Saturday, every team in the division has played at least three conference games as the race for a title has become more clear. Now feels like a good time to reset things and see how every team stands going into the stretch run.

Georgia is still Georgia

After a 7-0 start to the season, Kirby Smart is now 73-15 in the middle of year seven at Georgia. The Dawgs once again have the best defense in the SEC, a strong running game (196.7 yards on 5.6 yards per rush), and are outscoring foes by 32.6 points per game.

The Dawgs are a run-first operation but are getting efficiency and enough big-play pop from Stetson Bennett at quarterback to score points. There is a lack of vertical playmaking at wide receiver so at times this offense is having to manufacture the passing game with slots and tight ends but offensive coordinator Todd Monken does a good job creating matchups for his personnel.

Meanwhile, the defense has allowed just one Power Five foe in five games to score more than 10 points, and on that day, Missouri needed a huge game from its kicker. Georgia does not appear to have a weakness, but the Bulldogs really haven’t seen a top-25 threat since the opener.

After bludgeoning Oregon in Atlanta to start the season, the Dawgs have not played a top-30 team in ESPN’s SP+ in nearly two months. UGA will see three top-20 teams in consecutive weeks to begin November — Tennessee (No. 5), Kentucky (No. 14), and Mississippi State (No. 20) — with the last two meetings coming on the road in Starkville and Lexington.

After the bye, Georgia will begin a tough five-game stretch starting with the Cocktail Party. Smart’s team has rivalries games with Florida and Georgia Tech serving as bookends before getting into one of the toughest stretches any SEC team will have this season.

The Bulldogs look like a legitimate national title contender, but we will learn a lot about this team in November.

Dream season on Rocky Top

It’s all coming together for Tennessee in year two under head coach Josh Heupel. The Vols have a Heisman Trophy contender at quarterback, a spread offensive scheme that SEC defensive coaches do not have an answer for at the moment, and a defense that plays opportunistic football excelling at creating stops backed up.

After squeaking out late victories against Pittsburgh and Florida in September, the Vols hit another gear in October smoking LSU in Death Valley and then ending a long losing streak against Alabama on Saturday. The Big Orange is now up to No. 3 in the AP Top 25.

Now we’ll get to see how this team handles success with weeks of national recognition coming for Tennessee football.

There are still some remaining hurdles on the schedule highlighted by a road trip to Georgia on Nov. 5. However, there is a huge trap spot with Kentucky coming into Neyland Stadium the week before that and the road trip to South Carolina on Nov. 19 could be challenging.

The Vols have a legit chance to win the SEC East for the first time since 2007 and are a playoff contender at this point. However, a letdown performance could lead to a loss or two down the stretch.

Heupel’s offense is downright filthy at the moment, and Hendon Hooker appears to be in total control. If he keeps playing at this all-star level this Tennessee team is going to be a tough out.

Kentucky can play spoiler

It’s fair to say that Kentucky has caught some tough breaks to begin the season. The Cats first had to play their first four games without All-SEC tailback Chris Rodriguez Jr. in the lineup. After a great team win at Florida, UK hit the road again and lost a 50-50 game to undefeated Ole Miss where two fourth-quarter scoring opportunity turnovers cost Mark Stoops’ program a huge win. In that loss, Will Levis was injured and could not go the next week against South Carolina leading to an upset loss at home.

Kentucky was hit with some adversity and backed into the corner but responded with their best performance of the season in a dominant home win over top-20 Mississippi State on Saturday. Heading into the bye, this banged-up football team must get healthy, but there is a lot left for the Big Blue to play for.

Kentucky will head to Tennessee on Oct. 29 off the bye and will have the opportunity to record an all-time win in this rivalry series. The Cats then host Georgia on Nov. 19 and could play spoiler at Kroger Field. Meanwhile, UK is not mathematically eliminated from winning the division title yet.

The Cats own a top-10 defense, an NFL quarterback, and one of the top tailbacks in college football. Kentucky has the ingredients to make some noise down the stretch.

South Carolina can make a run at a top-25 finish

Shane Beamer’s second team at South Carolina got off to a bad start with blowout losses to Arkansas and Georgia to begin conference play. Many thought the Gamecocks could be heading to a 5-7 season. But after three straight wins highlighted by an upset over Kentucky, things are looking up.

Carolina will be a favorite against Missouri (Oct. 29), and Vanderbilt (Nov. 5) as those are two games the Gamecocks should win. On Saturday, Beamer’s team is a small home underdog (+3.5) against Texas A&M. Meanwhile, the road trip to Florida (Nov. 12) will be a 50/50 game. The Gamecocks then close the season with Tennessee at home and Clemson on the road where there will be two real upset chances.

At worst, this team should finish 6-6, but there is a real chance to get to 8-4 and push for a top-25 finish if the Gamecocks can win some 50/50 games and perhaps pull off one more big upset.

Despite a shaky passing game, tailback MarShawn Lloyd is playing at an All-SEC level to carry the offense, and the pass defense is good enough to keep the Gamecocks in most games. There are a lot of possibilities remaining for Beamer’s team to end the year.

Florida is in the danger zone

In year one under Billy Napier, Florida enters the bye week with a top-10 yards per play offense (7.2) and top-five rushing offense (6.4 yards per rush), but the Gators are just 4-3 overall and 2-3 against Power Five competition.

Florida has lost home games to Kentucky and LSU on top of dropping a back-and-forth affair with Tennessee on the road. With four games remaining against top-40 SP+ competition — and only one coming occurring in The Swamp — things could get ugly for Napier down the stretch.

The overall record likely drops to 4-4 after the Georgia meeting next week making the road trip to Texas A&M (Nov. 5) the most important game on the schedule. If one loss turns into three, the Gators could be looking at a consecutive 6-6 season. That would not be progress for the new coaching staff.

At the end of the day, there are major defensive issues as the Gators rank No. 105 in yards per play (5.96), No. 119 in red zone possessions (32), and are dead last in third down conversion rate (52.6%). Napier’s staff needs to hit the transfer portal hard in the offseason.

Bowl eligibility is possible for Missouri

Despite sitting at just 2-4 entering the bye, Missouri football has built some momentum. The defense is doing some good things under new defensive coordinator Blake Baker as the Tigers had Auburn, Georgia, and Florida all on the ropes in consecutive weeks.

Unfortunately, Eliah Drinkwitz’s team lost a one-possession game in each outing.

The Tigers will have a chance to get rolling on Saturday at home against Vanderbilt and also host New Mexico State (Nov. 19) in what should be two wins at Faurot Field. Could Mizzou find two more upsets?

Home games with Kentucky (Nov. 5) and Arkansas (No. 25) loom large while a road trip to South Carolina (Oct. 29) is winnable. Drinkwitz is entering a big six-game stretch and needs to put some victories together.

If losses mount up, Missouri could enter 2023 with a legitimate hot-seat situation heading into year four under Drinkwitz.

Clark Lea needs an SEC win

Vanderbilt football has taken a step in the right direction this season. The Commodores found their QB of the future in true freshman AJ Swann and handled their business in non-con going 3-1 with the only loss coming to a ranked Wake Forest squad.

Now the Commodores must find a way to end an embarrassing 24-game conference losing streak. Vandy has drawn a tough stretch to start this year having already faced three top-10 squads in Alabama, Ole Miss, and Georgia. Things get easier with a road trip to Missouri on Saturday.

Clark Lea’s program will likely be a double-digit dog in every remaining conference game but Saturday’s tilt with Missouri and a home game on Nov. 5 against South Carolina feel like the best opportunities to get into the win column. Getting a dub in either spot would be another positive forward step for this rebuilding program.