By the Numbers: Reasons Oregon Should Feel Confident in this Matchup

We are only days away from the #5 Oregon Ducks taking on the #4 Texas Tech Red Raiders in Miami at the Orange Bowl. Just looking at team statistics and advanced metrics, this matchup is extremely close.

Oregon is 3^rd in FPI while Texas Tech is 5^th. The Red Raiders are 3^rd in SP+ while the Ducks are 4^th. ESPN efficiency also has Oregon as 4^th and Tech as 3^rd. If you want to see exactly how close statistically these two teams are, check out my article from Saturday.

While they both have very good offensive and defensive numbers, there are some factors to consider when looking at the performance of these two teams. These factors might give Duck fans some added confidence going into the game on Thursday.

There is a Massive Blue-Chip Discrepancy

Recruit rankings and player evaluations aren’t everything. Let’s get that out of the way before we dive into this. The Ducks had a huge advantage over Indiana in terms of roster talent and it didn’t do them a bit of good back in October.

With that said, the numbers are the numbers, and it should be noted that Oregon has a sizeable advantage in terms of overall talent over Texas Tech.

Way back in July, CBS put out their annual Blue-Chip Ratio (BCR) rankings. If you’re not familiar with BCR, it’s the idea that “to win the national championship, college football teams need to sign more four- and five-star recruits than two- and three-star players over the previous four recruiting classes.”

Furthermore, a team needs to have a BCR above 50% to win a national championship. This has held true for every year since 2011. The lowest BCR champs in that time were Michigan in 2023 (54%) and Florida State in 2013 (53%). Ohio State last year had an insane 90% BCR.

CBS puts Oregon at 78% without transfers and 73% with transfers. Texas Tech does not make their list of 18 teams that are above 50%. With transfers, my math puts Tech around 27% BCR. They have 1 five-star, 20 four-stars, and 57 three-stars. Oregon has 6 five-stars, 52 four-stars, and 27 three-stars.

That’s a very large talent gap. Indiana is even worse at 0 five-stars, 7 four-stars, and 55 three-stars. It would be a huge shift of power if either Tech or Indiana won the natty this year.

Strength of Schedule Favors Oregon

According to ESPN, the Ducks have the 14^th hardest SOS in the FBS. Tech is only at 54^th. That puts some of their stats into perspective. We saw how much the defensive rankings meant for James Madison when they faced Oregon. Will the same principle hold true for the Red Raiders?

Their best win of the season was over BYU at home. They beat the Cougars 29-7 in Lubbock and then beat them again in the Big 12 championship in Arlington, Texas. BYU’s strength of schedule was 23^rd this year. Neither of those games were in a hostile environment for Tech, however.

Their best road win was at Utah. The Utes are currently ranked 15^th but their SOS is even worse than Tech. They ended the season with the 58^th hardest schedule in the country. That takes a little bit of the shine off that win. Plus, the Red Raiders’ only loss came on the road to Arizona State.

Oregon on the other hand played in several tough road games this year at historically difficult locations. They got a massive overtime win over Penn State during a white-out at Happy Valley, and then a walk-off field goal victory over Iowa during a rainy mess of a game at Kinnick Stadium.

The Ducks also went into Husky Stadium and beat Washington, which is never an easy task. Oregon proved that they could win on the road this season. Has Texas Tech proven the same thing?

Dante Moore is a Major Advantage in this Game

The Red Raiders have a very good defense. Everyone knows that. So do the Ducks. So where else can you look for an advantage? Quarterback is a good place to start. Dante Moore is widely considered a top 5 pick in this upcoming draft (if he chooses to declare.)

Texas Tech has a decent QB as well in Behren Morton. He’s good, but he’s nowhere near the same level as Moore. It’s not just the draft hype, but the stats that back that up. Moore had more total yards (3,046 to only 2,643) and a much better completion percentage (72.3%  to only 66.3%).

PFF gives Dante Moore an offensive grade of 92.1 for the season, while Morton only has a 78.7 grade. Moore had 28 Big Time Throws, which according to PFF is “a pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.” Morton had 20.

Dante has an NFL passer rating of 117.3 while Morton is 112.4 this year. Both good QBs but Moore has been better. He needs to be better this Thursday for Oregon to get the win.

How Those Two QBs Perform Under Pressure

We have established that both QBs are good, with Moore getting the edge. How do these two players perform under pressure though? 23% of Moore’s drop-backs this season have been under pressure, while Morton has been under pressure 25% of the time.  

Moore’s completion percentage drops to 60% and his NFL passer rating falls to 90.3 when he’s under pressure. His PFF grade goes all the way down to 60.5 on offense and 64.5 for passing. He has 510 yards, 3 touchdowns, and 2 picks under pressure. Not great, right?

Morton is significantly worse. His PFF grade plummets to 42.3 on offense and 44.4 for passing. His completion percentage goes down to 55.2 and his NFL passer rating is 69.8 in the 81 drop backs he has under pressure. He has 423 yards, 1 touchdown, and 2 picks.

Long story short, Moore performs better when he has a clean pocket and he still performs better when under pressure. Oregon needs to get to Morton in this game, and if they do it will have a significant impact on the outcome.