Oregon's Playoff Path is Set - How Difficult Could it Be?

The Oregon Ducks are officially in the college football playoff. Their final ranking before this all kicks off is #5 and they will be facing the #12 James Madison Dukes in the first round. The game will be hosted at Autzen Stadium on December 20^th, at 4:30 pm on TNT.

If the Ducks win, the rest of the path for Oregon is #4 Texas Tech in the quarterfinals, potentially #1 Indiana in the semifinals, and then any one of six teams from the other side of the bracket. It’s possible the Hoosiers could be knocked off by either #8 Oklahoma or #9 Alabama in the quarters.

How tough is this path going to be? Where do these teams rank on SP+ or Sagarin? What are their rankings on offense and defense?

Let’s dig into it.

First Round – #12 James Madison Dukes

This is supposed to be the cupcake round for Oregon. Fan Duel already has the Ducks as a 20.5 favorite in this game. Will the game be that easy? Oregon has done a pretty good job of playing above their competition when facing lesser talented opponents. They stomped on Montana State, Oklahoma State, and Oregon State. Will that be the case with JMU?

On paper, the Dukes are very formidable. They’re #24 on SP+ which is above teams like #17 Arizona and #18 Michigan. They’re also #28 on FPI and #20 on the Sagarin ratings. That’s only two spots behind Washington on Sagarin.

They’re ranked 2nd in overall yards allowed in the FBS, 2nd in rushing yards allowed, and 10th in points allowed. Offensively they’re 22nd in total yards per game and 6th in rushing yards. They’re 10th in points per game as well. They do not throw the ball though. They’re 94^th in passing pards per game.

How much of that transitions to the playoffs? Maybe not so well. JMU has the 123^rd strength of schedule on ESPN. The only decent team that they played this season was Louisville and they lost 28-14 in week 2. They did beat Washington State 24-20, but the rest of their schedule looks like a typical G5 team.

Oregon is favored and they should be.

Second Round – #4 Texas Tech Red Raiders

If the Ducks get past James Madison, they will face Texas Tech in the second round. Somewhat similar to JMU, the Red Raiders don’t have a great SOS. They have the 53^rd toughest schedule in the country according to ESPN, so that should be remembered when looking at their stats.

Texas Tech is #3 in SP+ and #5 on FPI and Sagarin. On paper this is a very good team. Especially on defense. They’re the #1 team according to ESPN efficiency on defense. Oregon is #5. Their best wins were #15 Utah, #12 BYU and Arizona State.

The Red Raider defense is something of concern. They’re 1st in rushing yards allowed, 3rd in points allowed, and 6th in total yards allowed. Worth noting that their passing defense is only 27^th in yards allowed. The last time Oregon faced a defense this good was Indiana and they only put up 186 yards through the air and 81 yards on the ground for 13 points on offense.

Offensively Texas Tech is no slouch either. They’re 4^th in yards per game, 3^rd in points per game, and 9^th in passing yards per game. Their rushing attack is the main weak spot. TT is only 25^th in rushing yards per game, so that’s an area that Oregon could try to exploit to slow down their elite passing attack.

If the Ducks make it to the second round, this will be a battle.

Third Round – #1 Indiana Hoosiers

We don’t need to tell Duck fans about the Hoosiers because we already know what can happen when Oregon faces Indiana. If both teams make it this far, it will be an entertaining rematch of two very well coached teams from the Big Ten.

Indiana finished the regular season as the #2 team in SP+, #1 team in FPI, and #3 team in Sagarin rating. They’re also #1 in strength of record, #1 in overall efficiency on ESPN, and #4 in game control. This is a very good team, as shown yesterday when they knocked off Ohio State.

If the Ducks took Indiana lightly in the first game, that definitely will not be the case if this rematch happens. I think Indiana’s defense has been the most impressive part of their season. They’re 2^nd in points allowed per game, 5^th in yards allowed per game, and 3^rd in rushing yards allowed.

Again, none of this is really surprising after watching them give Oregon fits on offense, and then completely shutting down the Buckeyes. It’s worth pointing out that, on paper, Oregon would be facing the top 3 run defenses in the country if they play JMU, Texas Tech, and Indiana.

Still, I like Oregon’s chances in a rematch against Curt Cignetti and the Hoosiers. If this ends up being Oklahoma or Alabama, we will dig into that as well.

Here’s the Rankings

SP+
Oregon – #4
James Madison – #24
Texas Tech – #3
Indiana – #2

FPI
Oregon – #4
James Madison – #28
Texas Tech – #5
Indiana – #1

Sagarin ratings
Oregon – #4
James Madison – #20
Texas Tech – #5
Indiana – #3

SOR
Oregon – #4
James Madison – #18
Texas Tech – #7
Indiana – #1

GC
Oregon – #3
James Madison – #42
Texas Tech – #2
Indiana – #4

ESPN Efficiencies

Overall
Oregon – #4
James Madison – #30
Texas Tech – #3
Indiana – #1

Offense
Oregon – #4
James Madison – #49
Texas Tech – #22
Indiana – #5

Defense
Oregon – #5
James Madison – #20
Texas Tech – #1
Indiana – #3

Raw Stats

Offensive YDS/G
Oregon – #14
James Madison – #22
Texas Tech – #4
Indiana – #5

Offensive Passing YDS/G
Oregon – #49
James Madison – #94
Texas Tech – #9
Indiana – #41

Offensive Rushing YDS/G
Oregon – #14
James Madison – #6
Texas Tech – #25
Indiana – #9

Offensive PTS/G
Oregon – #9
James Madison – #10
Texas Tech – #3
Indiana – #2

Defense

Defensive YDS/G
Oregon – #4
James Madison – #2
Texas Tech – #6
Indiana – #5

Defensive Passing YDS/G
Oregon – #3
James Madison – #12
Texas Tech – #27
Indiana – #14

Defensive Rushing YDS/G
Oregon – #20
James Madison – #2
Texas Tech – #1
Indiana – #3

Defensive PTS/G
Oregon – #8
James Madison – #10
Texas Tech – #3
Indiana – #2