Las Vegas is waiting on the national championship picture to coalesce
The people at BetMGM have a page that tracks the changes to their 2025 National Championship odds since their January opening, and week one did a number on their numbers.
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At opening, 10 teams had odds of +2000 or better: Ohio State, Penn State, Texas, Georgia, Oregon, LSU, Notre Dame, Alabama, Clemson, and Tennessee.
Now? There are only nine. Sorry Tennessee, you went from +2000 to +8000.
| Team | Opening (January) Odds | Current Odds | Change | Record |
| Ohio State | +450 | +500 | +50 | 1-0 |
| Penn State | +850 | +600 | -250 | 1-0 |
| Texas | +550 | +700 | +150 | 0-1 |
| Georgia | +600 | +700 | +100 | 1-0 |
| Oregon | +700 | +900 | +200 | 1-0 |
| LSU | +2000 | +1000 | -1000 | 1-0 |
| Notre Dame | +1200 | +1400 | +200 | 1-0 |
| Alabama | +1200 | +1500 | +300 | 0-1 |
| Clemson | +2000 | +1500 | -500 | 0-1 |
| Tennessee | +2000 | +8000 | +6000 | 1-0 |
The perceived downgrade from 2024 to 2025 in Knoxville was easily the biggest mover on the board at least from those teams that started the season as +2000 or better favorites. The biggest upgrade in BetMGM’s eyes? LSU, who went from +2000 to +1000 thanks to a win at Clemson. Even Clemson somehow benefitted from the loss in the eyes of the market, moving from +2000 to +1500, though there was probably a spell in the hundreds in the offseason as Dabo Swinney’s program became a talkin’ season darling.
Other big movers? Florida went from +5000 to +2500.
Arizona State went from +9000 to +6600.
Nebraska went from +10000 to +8000.
Texas Tech moved from +15000 to +8000. Again, the opening odds are from January, and a lot has happened in Lubbock and around college football since then. Paul Wadlington recently wrote that six teams can win the national championship: Penn State, Clemson, Texas, Alabama, Ohio State, and LSU.
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All those teams remain 15-to-1 or better at BetMGM. There’s likely to be some more movement in the coming weeks, especially if teams gain their first (or second) loss of the season.
Until then, the Bet MGM national championship picture will look a lot like the actual national championship picture: wide open.
