Stat Check: Key Indicators for Oregon & Iowa

The #9 ranked Oregon Ducks are heading to Iowa City to face the #20 Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium this weekend. This promises to be a classic Big Ten brawl between two physical teams with playoff aspirations. Once again, the weather looks like it won’t cooperate for the Ducks, so another ground-heavy slog appears likely.

What else can we expect from this game? And what benchmarks do Dan Lanning and his staff need to hit to secure another win? This matchup is a major opportunity to show the playoff committee and the college football world that Oregon is legit. These numbers will help cement that status.

Oregon Offense Needs to Generate 200+ Passing Yards

Against Wisconsin, the run game was the key metric to watch, but Iowa’s defense presents a different challenge. The Hawkeyes have one of the best run defenses in the country. With ugly weather in the forecast, establishing the ground game could be difficult.

It’s not just the run defense, either. Iowa has an elite defense across the board. They rank 3rd in overall yards allowed per game, 10th in rushing yards allowed, and 5th in passing yards allowed. They’re giving up only 13.1 points per game, which is 4th in the FBS. This will be one of Oregon’s toughest tests.

Indiana scored only 20 points against Iowa, which was their lowest output of the season. Despite that low scoring, the Hoosiers still found success through the air with 233 yards and two touchdowns. Iowa State, the Hawkeyes’ other defeat, passed for 134 yards and a score. Oregon needs to land somewhere in that range.

The Ducks need enough passing success to open things up on the ground. In the games where scoring stalled, Dante Moore threw for 248 yards against PSU, 186 against Indiana, and 86 against Wisconsin. To be fair, he was out for most of the second half with an injury against the Badgers, but he was on pace for another rough game.

Moore needs to play more like he did against Penn State if Oregon hopes to move the ball consistently.

Give Up Zero Sacks in the First Half

A huge part of Oregon’s passing success hinges on protecting Dante Moore. When he’s kept clean, Moore thrives. When he’s hit early, he struggles.

Against Indiana, the Ducks gave up a sack on the first play of the game, and Moore never looked comfortable. They allowed three sacks in the first half and six overall — a major factor in the loss. Against Penn State, Oregon didn’t allow a single sack, and Moore looked like a completely different quarterback.

The young QB clearly gets rattled when he’s hit early, and we’ve now seen that play out twice — against Indiana and against Wisconsin, where he was sacked twice in the first quarter. Will Stein must find a way to protect his quarterback early and often.

Hold Iowa to 150 or Fewer Yards on the Ground

Both teams will want to establish the run, especially given the forecast. That kind of environment is exactly what Iowa wants. In their six wins, the Hawkeyes have averaged:

• 210 rushing yards per game on 39 carries
• 131 passing yards on 21 attempts

In their two losses, they averaged:

• 111 rushing yards on 35 carries
• 137 passing yards on 31 attempts

Oregon needs to force Iowa to throw. That means loading the box and daring Mark Gronowski to test Oregon’s #1-rated pass defense.

Oregon’s run defense has been solid, allowing 115 yards per game (30th nationally). It’s respectable but nowhere near as dominant as their pass defense, which gives up just 124.6 yards per game. Tosh Lupoi must find a way to limit chunk runs and keep Iowa from grinding out long drives.

Feed Jordon Davison 15+ carries

In Oregon’s toughest offensive performances, the bright spot has consistently been Jordon Davison. Against Indiana, he had 8 carries for 59 yards (7.4 YPC) and may have helped Oregon steal a win had the staff not gone away from the run.

They clearly took that lesson to heart. Against Wisconsin, Davison carried the ball 16 times for 102 yards (6.4 YPC) and two touchdowns in a physical, ugly game. He thrived in those conditions — and Iowa will present more of the same.

Current forecasts call for rain in the morning and a rain/snow mix in the afternoon, with temperatures in the mid-40s and steady winds. That’s Iowa football weather — but it’s also the perfect environment for Davison to take over.

Stein and Lanning need to feed #0 a steady diet of carries. Not only does it maximize Oregon’s physicality, but it also keeps Dante Moore off the turf — which is one of the biggest keys to winning the game.