Minnesota Football vs New Mexico - Rate Bowl Gameday Central: Keys to victory, predictions, and more
The Minnesota Golden Gophers will play their season finale on Friday afternoon in the Rate Bowl at Chase Field in Phoenix, Arizona, against the Mountain West Conference’s New Mexico Lobos. Gophers Nation below goes over how you can watch, listen, and follow along with Friday’s game as well as keys to victory, predictions, and more.
Minnesota vs New Mexico: Game time and details
Where: Phoenix, Arizona
Stadium: Chase Field
Time: 3:30 p.m. CT
Odds: Minnesota is a 1.5-point underdog for Friday’s game with a total of 43.5 points according to BetMGM.
How to watch, stream Minnesota Football vs New Mexico
Saturday’s game will be televised on ESPN. Mike Monaco will be handling the play-by-play for ESPN with Kirk Morrison serving as the analyst and Dawn Davenport as the sideline reporter. Fans can also listen to the game on KFAN 100.3 with Mike Grimm, Darrell Thompson, and Justin Gaard on the call.
Weather
The roof will be closed at Chase Field for Friday’s game. Outside, however, in Phoenix, it will be a beautiful late December day with a high of 74 and a low of 55.
Keys to Victory
1. Keep New Mexico’s rushing attack in check
Despite their leading rusher totaling just 578 rushing yards on the season, this is a quality New Mexico rushing attack that averages 155.1 yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry. The Gophers’ run defense, on the other hand, has struggled at times throughout the season, especially later in the year. After keeping opponents under 70 rushing yards in each of their first three games, the Gophers allowed 120+ rushing yards in seven of their final nine games. They also surrendered nine rushing touchdowns over their final five regular-season games. Notably, in New Mexico’s three losses this season, the Lobos were held to 80 rushing yards or fewer in each.
2. Can Darius Taylor continue his bowl game dominance?
Minnesota running back Darius Taylor has had a knack for producing in bowl games through his first two seasons. As a freshman, he totaled 35 carries for 208 yards and a touchdown. Last season, in the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, he added 20 carries for 113 yards and another score. Throughout his career, Taylor has been a major part of Minnesota’s success. When he rushes for over 100 yards, the Gophers are 10-2. When he doesn’t reach that mark, they’re 7-8. It’s by no means a death sentence if Taylor falls short of 100 yards, but life is certainly easier for Minnesota when he gets there.
3. Turnovers
The final key to victory for Minnesota is something the Gophers have struggled with for much of the 2025 season: forcing turnovers. In 12 regular-season games, Minnesota forced just 15 turnovers, aided by big performances against Northwestern State (4), Purdue (4), and Wisconsin (3). In the other nine games, the Gophers forced only four turnovers combined. New Mexico, meanwhile, has struggled with ball security, committing 22 turnovers on the season, including six over its final five games. The Lobos are 9-0 when committing two turnovers or fewer and 0-3 when turning the ball over three or more times.
Protecting the football will also be important for Minnesota, though the Gophers have done a strong job in that area all season. They’ve committed just eight turnovers, only one of which was a fumble. Minnesota turned the ball over in just five games this season, with three of those eight turnovers coming against Iowa. The Gophers were 0-2 when turning the ball over more than once.
Prediction
The Golden Gophers have thrived in bowl games under head coach P.J. Fleck, who enters Friday with a perfect 6-0 bowl record and eight straight bowl wins overall. Minnesota will face a formidable opponent in New Mexico, but it’s still one the Gophers should have a clear talent advantage over. That said, I don’t believe Minnesota has a massive athletic edge over the Lobos, which could keep this game close. New Mexico is a well-coached team—one of the most well-coached opponents Minnesota will face all season.
The key for the Gophers will be establishing the rushing attack, though that won’t be easy against a Lobos defense that allowed 113.4 rushing yards per game and just 3.4 yards per carry this season. Still, some of the more talented teams New Mexico faced, such as Michigan, San Diego State, Boise State, and San Jose State, were able to find success on the ground. Minnesota’s size advantage in the trenches should help keep this from becoming a poor matchup.
If the Gophers can get the running game going, it should open up the passing attack, though it remains a major question which wide receivers or tight ends will emerge as targets for Drake Lindsey on Friday afternoon.
Defensively, Minnesota should be able to have some success. I don’t expect New Mexico’s offense to be explosive, but there will be moments where the Lobos move the ball. Much of that will depend on which defensive tackles are available. If players like Jalen Logan-Redding and Deven Eastern opt out, it could be a longer day for Danny Collins and the Gophers’ defense.
Ultimately, this feels like many of Minnesota’s games this season—ugly, but effective.
Minnesota 24, New Mexico 20
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