Skip to main content
Oregon
Join Now

What is a Successful Oregon Playoff Run?

by: Ted Leroux23 hours ago

Every season Dan Lanning has been at Oregon, the Ducks have taken another step forward in their final results. After a Holiday Bowl win in 2022 — a season that included losses to both Oregon State and Washington — Lanning and his staff responded in 2023 by beating Oregon State and winning a New Year’s Six bowl.

Fast forward to 2024, Oregon’s first year in the Big Ten, and the Ducks kicked down the door. They not only won the conference in their debut season, but went 13–0, defeated both rivals, and earned the No. 1 seed in the College Football Playoff before falling to Ohio State in the quarterfinals.

With Oregon entering the bracket in the most enviable position possible, it raises a key question. What exactly constitutes a successful playoff run — and by extension, a successful season — in Eugene?

James Madison…

It goes without saying that Oregon needs to beat JMU to have a successful postseason and I don’t anticipate the Ducks will have any trouble with that. The last time Dan’s Ducks battled a Group of Five darling, Oregon rattled off 45 consecutive points dismantling undefeated Liberty in the 2024 Fiesta Bowl, I’d anticipate a similar result with Autzen Stadium behind this squad.

Texas Tech

If Oregon avoids the unimaginable, this is where the real debate begins. In theory, Dan Lanning will have taken the next step on the ladder with a playoff win — the milestone many, myself included, circled as the natural progression entering the offseason. But a win over an overmatched James Madison team followed by a loss to Texas Tech could still leave the fanbase with mixed feelings.

Make no mistake — the Red Raiders field one of the best defenses in college football. The boys from Lubbock rank second nationally in defensive F+ and defensive yards per play. Linebackers Jacob Rodriguez and Ben Roberts form an elite tandem, combining for 188 tackles, 11 pass breakups, 9 forced fumbles, and 7 interceptions. Meanwhile, David Bailey has emerged as one of the country’s premier pass rushers, piling up 13.5 sacks this season.

I can throw out as many stats as you want — the bottom line is this defense is legit. It’s hard to imagine Oregon rolling into Miami and lighting up the scoreboard against a group this good, but I’d love to be proven wrong. The more I think about this matchup, the more it feels like this has to be a win for the season to be considered a success. Another loss in the same round as last year’s exit would stir up plenty of empty feelings and frustrations. Following up last season’s flat-tire quarterfinal showing with a loss to a Big 12 team would raise real questions about Dan Lanning and his performance in bigger postseason games.

Semifinal = Success

No matter how you slice it — regardless of how the James Madison game or a potential Orange Bowl matchup with Texas Tech plays out — reaching the semifinals would make this a successful season.

If things unfold that way, Oregon would have two playoff wins, including a victory over the Big 12 champion. They’d match last year’s 13-win total and take another step forward in the postseason, all after a spring that saw a record number of Ducks selected in the NFL Draft.

Awaiting in the semifinals would be Oklahoma, Alabama, or Indiana in this hypothetical scenario. And something tells me Dan Lanning wouldn’t mind another crack at Curt Cignetti — this time with a spot in the national title game on the line.

You may also like