Three Keys to Victory: Missouri State
Louisiana Tech has reached six wins for the first time since the 2010s after an inspiring comeback win on Senior Day. How they make it seven tomorrow afternoon against the upstart Bears of Missouri State?
Ground and Pound
If last week’s game is any indication, the key to success for the current LA Tech offense is to run the football early and often. Against Liberty, the Bulldogs ran 75 offensive plays, fifty-four of which were run plays. QB Trey Kukuk led the rushing attack (19 carries, 143 yards) on his way to setting a single-game record for a Tech QB on the ground.
Tech also showed some creativity with a heavy dose of Wild Burnette and even some WR jet sweeps to Marlion Jackson. On the whole, the Bulldog offense featured 6 different ball carriers throughout the game.
Unfortunately for the Bulldogs, running the football this weekend won’t be an easy feat. For one, Tech’s run game has stunk to high heaven on the road this season. At home, the running game averages a whopping 223 yards per game. On the road… that number skydives all the way down to 105 yards per game. That is mind-boggling.
Making matters worse, Missouri State’s run defense is top in the league, allowing just 125 yards per game to conference opponents. Despite their ranking, if you look into the advanced stats there are two silver linings for Tech fans: 1) Missouri State ranks 90th in Expected points added on run plays, meaning that opponents are relatively successful when they do run the football, and 2) Tech’s ability to gain yards after contact (39th in FBS) should be in play against a Bear defense that ranks 94th in that category.
Play a clean game
In a road game against a good opponent, it shouldn’t be a shocker that you’ll need to play clean football to come away with the W.
Until last week’s comeback victory over Liberty, Louisiana Tech had really struggled with penalties all year. They finally put together a pretty clean game in that regard when they needed it most – any penalty could’ve killed the three touchdown drives or kept Liberty alive! I’ll be honest, I’m still kind of shocked they didn’t throw a flag on Liberty’s last third down attempt… not because it was a penalty, but because I’m so used to Tech extending critical drives via the laundry.
This also goes for turnovers! We needed every single turnover we got in last week’s game, and I don’t anticipate this one being any different.
Third Downs
Missouri State has a pretty balanced offense that won’t blow you away in either the run or the passing game, but they do enough to get by. They’re ranked 9th in CUSA in total offense and running game, but 4th in the air attack.
Tech’s defense will have their hands full dealing with a team that doesn’t rely to heavily on either area of the offense. Where I think they can win the game is on third downs. The Bear offense ranks 10th in CUSA in 3rd down conversion percentage, converting on just 35.9% of their attempts. Tech’s defense ranks 3rd at 34.7%.
On the flip side, Tech’s offense ranks 2nd with a 49% conversion rate (shocking, I know!), and Missouri State’s D is 7th, allowing 39.4% success.
Getting off the field on third down will be huge in this game for either team – especially if the forecast holds (as I write this on Tuesday before heading out for Thanksgiving festivities, the forecast calls for rain and a high of 44!)
Evan is a contributor at go tech pls dont die, a weekly podcast, Twitter, and blog that covers Louisiana Tech sports in a not-so-serious way.
