Three Keys to Victory: WKU
The Bulldogs are returning home after a two game road trip that ended in defeat at the hands of Kennesaw State. Tonight, they’ll take on a much more familiar foe as the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers hit the Joe.
What can the Bulldogs do to return to form against one of the preseason conference favorites?
1) Hit the ground running
So far this year, Tech has struggled to find its offensive identity. The Bulldogs have shown flashes of good passing performance amid a mostly ineffective campaign, and they’ve had one great rushing performance (353 yards against NMSU!). As a unit, the Tech offense just hasn’t been able to put it all together, and last week’s performance against Kennesaw was a stark reminder of how bad it can be when you can’t fire on any cylinders.
Luckily for Tony Franklin and the bunch – there’s an opportunity this week to establish part of your offense and get things headed back in the right direction. And you only have to look as far back as last year for inspiration: LA Tech’s 12-7 win over WKU in Bowling Green featured 209 yards rushing on 49 attempts.
This year’s WKU defense may be slightly improved in other areas, but it’s hard to see their 126th ranked run defense and not see opportunities for the Tech running back room. The advanced stats tell a similar story: WKU allows rushers to gain 2.55 yards before contact (114th in FBS) and 3.63 yards after contact (129th).
Need more inspiration? Last week, FIU ran all over the Hilltoppers, outpacing their season average by nearly 75 yards. The Panthers ran for 6.38 yards per carry – which is just what the doctor ordered for a LA Tech offense in desperate need of some positive plays.
2) Remember turnovers?
With the weird mid-week games, Tech has only played one game so far in the month of October. And since the defense didn’t force a turnover in the Kennesaw State game, it feels like forever since the nations #10 team in turnover margin has made an impact.
The Bulldog defense through 5 weeks was incredible – creating turnovers (and scoring points) at a rate that definitely felt unsustainable at the time. Just how unsustainable was it? I guess we will find out!
Enter Western, whose -0.29 turnover margin is good for 90th best in the nation. They’re also coming off a game in which they turned the ball over three times. In fact, in both of their losses they have lost the turnover battle. If Tech wants to have a good night tonight… might I recommend they get back in the habit of forcing turnovers? (And protecting the ball on offense, obviously!)
3) Limit McIvor’s impact
A big part of the turnover picture might rest on confusing QB Maverick McIvor – without blitzing him. So far, all of McIvor’s 5 INTs this year have come when he was NOT pressured. Strange!
The Tech pass defense will have its hands full, as the Hilltoppers boast the #13 ranked offense through the air, averaging almost 300 yards per game. Nearly 2/3rds of their passing plays feature passes behind the line of scrimmage or between 0-9 yards. That means the Hilltoppers’ key to success is completing short passes and staying ahead of the sticks.
Tech will need to contain Western’s passing attack by not missing tackles and allowing a lot of yards after the catch – so far this season, WKU averages 4.12 yards after contact on passing plays (44th in FBS), while Tech’s defense ranks 38th, allowing 3.17 YAC.
If Tech can force some obvious passing downs defensively, they’ll be in great shape – McIvor and the Hilltoppers really struggle in obvious passing situations with a success rate of just 32%. And while Maverick can sling it down field, his completion percentage plummets the further he looks from the line.
Keep the Hilltoppers in their short passes… but don’t miss tackles and allow the short passes to become long gains!
Evan is a contributor at go tech pls dont die, a weekly podcast, Twitter, and blog that covers Louisiana Tech sports in a not-so-serious way.
