Iowa Baseball Midweek Preview: Illinois State

One more time on the road before the Iowa Baseball team returns to Duane Banks Field for what will be their first home game in 17 days on Friday night. The Hawkeyes will face off against the Illinois State Redbirds in a midweek matchup on Tuesday afternoon in Normal before returning home for a three-game series against the top-ranked UCLA Bruins.

Rick Heller’s squad enters this week with a 14-8 overall record, with this being the final game of a seven-game road trip. This past weekend, the Hawkeyes dropped two of three in East Lansing against Michigan State but managed to win the series finale to salvage something from the series. Still, it was a disappointing series loss, given what’s ahead with UCLA, Minnesota and USC the next three weekends.

First pitch for Tuesday’s game between the Hawkeyes and Redbirds is scheduled for 5:00pm CT on ESPN+. It will be the 27th all-time meeting between the two programs, with Illinois State leading the series 16-10, including winning five of the last seven meetings. ISU won both legs of the home-and-home last season, winning 10-8 in Normal and 6-5 in Iowa City.

Illinois State Redbirds (17-7, 3-0)

The Redbirds, along with Murray State, have emerged as the top two contenders in the Missouri Valley this season, with ISU looking to make their first NCAA regional appearance since 2019. Last season, ISU finished 28-28 and it took until April 12th for the Redbirds to reach 17 wins. They enter this week with a 17-7 overall record and an active nine-game winning streak, including a series sweep of Belmont to open MVC play last weekend.

Iowa will be the first of four Power 4 teams that Illinois State will face this season. The Redbirds still have a home-and-home with Illinois and a single game at Northwestern coming during the midweek, while they will close the regular season with a three-game road series against Michigan State. These two teams will meet again in Iowa City on April 28th.

As at team, ISU has been strong at the plate, averaging 7.5 runs and 11.1 hits per game, while slashing .315/.405/.510, with five players with a .300 batting average or better. The top three in the MVC in batting average reside in the Redbirds lineup, while Brayden Bakes leads the conference in home runs. On the pitching staff side, ISU has a 5.00 team ERA and a 1.56 WHIP. In five midweek games, the Redbirds are 4-1, allowing 5.8 runs and 9.2 hits per game.

Redbirds Players to Watch

1. OF Brayden Bakes – A former transfer from Indiana, outfielder Brayden Bakes had a solid year last season, but is putting together an MVC Player of the Year caliber season to this point. In 24 starts, Bakes is slashing .417/.496/.796, with 43 hits, seven doubles, ten home runs and 29 RBI’s. He’s already tallied 16 multi-hit games and is riding an eight-game streak of multiple hits, piling up 21 hits and five home runs during that streak. Bakes leads the MVC with 10 home runs and leads the team with 18 extra base hits. He has not sacrificed power for extra swing and miss, going down on strikes in just 13.3% of 120 plate appearances.

2. 2B Graham Mastros – A former transfer from St Louis, second baseman Graham Mastros started 46 games last season, but batted under .300, despite tallying 21 extra base hits. In 24 starts this season, Mastros is slashing .374/.462/.667, with 37 hits, nine doubles, six home runs and 24 RBI’s. He’s tallied 12 multi-hit games, including in eight of his last 12 games. There is some swing and miss, with a 23.1 strikeout rate, but he is second on the team with 18 walks/hbp for a .462 on-base percentage. ISU’s biggest threat on the basepaths, Mastros led the team with 18 stolen bases last season and has seven stolen bases this season.

3. OF Luke Stulga – After making just 11 starts as a true freshman, outfielder Luke Stulga was a 54-game starter last season, including a 22-game hit streak that is the longest during the Steve Holm era (8th year). To this point, he has taken the next step, slashing .367/.397/.550 in 24 starts, including 40 hits, eight doubles, three triples, two home runs and 25 RBI’s. He’s tallied 13 multi-hit games, and much like his other two teammates ahead of him on this list, has been good late, with multiple hits in seven of his last nine games. Although his 17.1% strikeout rate isn’t bad, his 6.8% walk/hbp rate is pretty low and has just two walks over his last eight games.

Final Thought

A thorn in the Hawkeyes side over the last few seasons, they’ve lost four of six since 2022 and now, this looks like the best Illinois State team since Steve Holm’s first season (2019) when they played in the NCAA Tournament. There’s going to be a lot of Iowa Baseball fans that won’t like to hear that.

The top three hitters in their lineup have been incredible, combining for 45.1% of the teams’ hits, 47.0% of the teams’ RBI’s and 47 extra base hits. There’s no doubt it will be the toughest midweek lineup the Hawkeyes will face this season. Could there be some opportunity at the plate? The ISU pitching staff is giving up 1.01 hits per inning, while the defense has 24 errors, contributing to 22 (!) unearned runs in 24 games. In total, ISU is allowing 5.94 runs per nine innings, but this is an Iowa offense that had a tough time in East Lansing, although they did score 12 runs over the final 11.0 innings of the series. This is a tough midweek matchup and would provide a nice little 5-7 spot jump in the RPI if they can get it.