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Texas vs. Sam Houston State: Looking at statistically stoppable forces vs. statistically moveable objects

Joe Cookby: Joe Cook09/20/25josephcook89
ut_vs_utep-0008_manning

It’s no secret that the Texas Longhorns have struggled in certain areas of the game despite a top-10 ranking and a 2-1 start. Those struggles have taken place mostly on offense and in parts of the kicking game.

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Sam Houston State, however, could end up being a “good for what ails you” game for Texas, especially in a handful of statistics where the Longhorns rank No. 80 or higher in all of the Football Bowl Subdivision.

Texas passing offense: No. 86 – 200.3 ypg
SHSU passing yards allowed: No. 132 – 314.7 ypg

Texas team passing efficiency: No. 88 – 128.73
SHSU team passing efficiency defense: No. 114 – 154.44

Arch Manning has a chance to right himself against a defense that gives up over 300 yards per game. SHSU hasn’t limited a single passing offense to fewer than 249 yards in three games.

The formula for team passing efficiency defense is (8.4 * Yds + 330 * TD – 200 * Int + 100 * Cmp) / Att. Here’s a chance for Manning to post some yards and scores.

Texas third down conversion percentage: No. 125 – 28.6%
SHSU third down conversion percentage defense: No. 123 – 48.9%

One team barely converts one-third of its third-down attempts. The other gives up about half of the third-down attempts against it.

Texas scoring offense: T-91 – 24.0 ppg
SHSU scoring defense: T-129 – 38.7 ppg

This is the first matchup with a Power Four team for Sam Houston State, meaning three Group of Six teams have put up plenty of points against the Bearkats. Texas can’t continue to claim Ohio State adjusted stats when it only put up 27 on the UTEP defense.

Texas fourth down conversion percentage: No. 101 – 41.7%
SHSU fourth down conversion percentage defense: T-118 – 80.0%

How many of these will be in the red zone today?

Texas red zone offense: T-129 – 61.5%
SHSU red zone defense: T-101 – 100%

Speaking of…

Any sort of red zone trip for the Longhorns that does not result in a score would be the first for Sam Houston State’s defense in 2025.

Texas first downs offense: T-96 – 57 first downs
SHSU first downs defense: T-115 – 70 first downs

Texas kickoff returns: No. 113 – 15.67 ypr
SHSU kickoff return defense: No. 106 – 23.29 ypr

Overall, the Longhorns have a good opportunity today to move up in certain standings past a No. 80 ranking and to push SHSU further down the ranks.

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